MediumVI Energy Politics & Supply Security3 November 2026, Tuesday
Egypt defers five November LNG cargoes to 2027
Egypt has deferred 5 of the 15 LNG cargoes contracted for November to 2027 and expects about 10 cargoes this month, against 12 in October. The cost of a cargo has doubled since September to more than 100 million dollars. The government has set aside about 1 billion dollars for November.
According to a 4 November EnterpriseAM report citing a government official in Asharq Business, Egypt expects about 10 LNG cargoes in November, down from 12 in October. Five of the 15 contracted cargoes have been deferred to 2027. According to Egypt Daily News, about 15 cargoes in total were deferred over July–November. The cost per cargo has risen 100% since September to more than 100 million dollars, and November requires about 1 billion dollars.
Behind the deferrals lies an infrastructure constraint resting on 4 units, as much as price. According to EnterpriseAM, 3 floating storage and regasification units (FSRUs) at Ain Sokhna and 1 at Aqaba provide about 2.75 billion cubic feet a day of capacity. The Energos Winter unit at Damietta was sending out 450 million cubic feet a day before a drone attack in late July, and its return date has not been confirmed. The Hoegh Gandria, with capacity of 1 billion cubic feet a day, is expected to reach Ain Sokhna in early December.
Egypt is preparing to export at the same time, with the first cargo to Europe from the Idku plant expected by 30 November. At export prices, a standard 150,000-cubic-metre cargo could exceed 60 million dollars. In Talay's reading, deferring cargoes bought at 100 million dollars while exporting one worth 60 million shows that Cairo's constraint is hard currency, not gas volume. As of 4 November the impact of the July attack at Damietta on FSRU insurance cover could not be verified in open sources.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
With cargo costs doubling, Egypt is spreading its LNG purchases over time and trying to cap FX spending at around 1 billion dollars a month. The deferrals thin the supply buffer heading into winter; although the arrival of the Hoegh Gandria in December adds capacity, the constraint remains on the dollar side.
Likely effects
- Egyptian energy supplyNegativeWeeks
Making do with 10 cargoes in November raises fuel-oil use in power generation and the risk of outages as winter demand rises.
- Egyptian external financingNegative1–6 months
An LNG bill of about 1 billion dollars a month strains the current account and FX reserves.
- Global LNG balancePositiveWeeks
The 5 deferred cargoes could return to the spot market in the near term, giving European and Asian buyers limited relief.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Managed curtailment continues55%
Egypt keeps deferring cargoes in December and covers the gap with fuel oil and limited outages.
Watch: The number of LNG cargoes requested for December
- 2Winter outages widen30%
Cold weather and limited purchases make power cuts widespread, and the government turns to emergency spot purchases.
Watch: Announcements of scheduled power cuts in Egypt
- 3Purchases rise if costs fall15%
LNG prices fall, the cost per cargo drops below 100 million dollars and the deferrals stop.
Watch: The cost per cargo falling below 100 million dollars
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Cargoes deferred (November)▼ 5 / 15
- Cargo cost▼ $100m+
- November LNG bill▼ ~$1bn