MediumVI Energy Politics & Supply Security3 November 2026, Tuesday
NNPC says Nigerian output has risen to 1.8 million barrels a day
NNPC chief executive Ojulari told ADIPEC on 3 November that reforms had lifted Nigeria's crude output from 1.2 million to 1.8 million barrels a day, with a 2027 target of 2 million. He did not say whether the figure includes condensate; in October the ministry put combined oil and condensate output at 1.821 million barrels.
According to The Will, NNPC Group CEO Bashir Bayo Ojulari told ADIPEC in Abu Dhabi on 3 November that implementing the 2021 Petroleum Industry Act had raised output by 600,000 barrels a day. In his account, production rose from about 1.2 million to 1.8 million barrels a day. The company's 2027 target is 2 million barrels a day of oil and 10 billion standard cubic feet of gas. Ojulari referred to commercial deals worth about 20 billion dollars, but gave no breakdown by project.
A difference in definitions clouds the 1.8 million barrel figure. According to Vanguard, Minister of State for Petroleum Heineken Lokpobiri put combined oil and condensate output at 1.821 million barrels a day in early October. At the same event, NUPRC chief executive Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan gave an average of 1.75 million barrels a day for the first seven months of 2026. NNPC did not say whether its 1.8 million figure includes condensate, so a comparison with the OPEC quota could not be verified.
According to Vanguard, the NUPRC, the upstream regulator, opened 40 blocks to investors in its 2026 licensing round. Since 2024, 120 field development plans have been approved, with investment of about 47.6 billion dollars. To cut losses, the regulator approved 37 new crude evacuation routes; the rig count rose from fewer than 10 in 2023 to more than 70.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Nigeria has raised output markedly since 2023, but NNPC's 1.8 million barrel figure does not say whether it includes condensate. The 2027 target of 2 million barrels depends on the security of 37 new evacuation routes and on 20 billion dollars of deals turning into investment. For buyers seeking supply outside the Gulf, Nigeria is a growing but limited source.
Likely effects
- Global supplyUncertain1–6 months
Extra barrels from the Atlantic basin could close a small part of the gap left by the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Nigerian budgetPositive1–6 months
Higher output supports oil revenue, while the difference in definitions keeps budget assumptions uncertain.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Output holds its current range55%
Without pipeline outages, output stays in a range of 1.7–1.8 million barrels a day.
Watch: The NUPRC monthly production report
- 2Closing in on the 2027 target25%
The licensing round and deepwater projects gather pace, and output approaches 2 million barrels.
Watch: A final investment decision on Bonga Southwest
- 3Pipeline attacks cut output20%
Pipeline attacks in the Niger Delta drag output lower again.
Watch: NNPC force majeure announcements
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Nigerian output (NNPC)▲ 1.8 mn b/d
- First 7 months average▲ 1.75 mn b/d
- 2027 target▲ 2 mn b/d