MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints25 September 2026, Friday

Diesel rises by 2.55 lira on 25 September after a 5.5-lira cut on 24 September; a litre climbs to 93.45 lira on Istanbul's European side

Roughly half of the 5.50–5.57-lira diesel price cut made on 24 September was reversed a day later: with a 2.55-lira increase effective from 25 September, a litre of diesel on Istanbul's European side rose from 90.90 lira to 93.45 lira. Petrol was unchanged at 80.40 lira and LPG at 34.99 lira.

Location: ISTANBUL

According to an Ekotürk report timed 16:11 on 24 September, the price of a litre of diesel was raised by 2.55 lira effective from Friday 25 September; on Istanbul's European side the price rose from 90.90 lira to 93.45 lira, and on the Anatolian side from 90.70 lira to 93.25 lira. According to Gzt, expected post-increase prices reach 94.55 lira in Ankara, 94.85 lira in İzmir and up to 96.25 lira in eastern provinces. The same source gives the 24 September cut as 5.57 lira, while BirGün reports the cut as 5.50 lira and the previous Istanbul price as around 96.40 lira. The two figures do not tally.

According to BirGün's table dated 24 September, petrol costs 80.40 lira on Istanbul's European side, 81.40 lira in Ankara and 81.70 lira in İzmir; LPG costs 34.99 lira on Istanbul's European side. The same report attributed the cut to Brent falling below $100 to $98.53 and to expectations regarding US–Iran diplomacy. However, Brent rose 1.99% on 24 September to climb back to $100.79, and the dollar/lira rate stayed in record territory at 48.87; these two moves formed the basis for the increase. Diesel thus fell from around 96.40 lira to 90.90 lira within 48 hours before returning to 93.45 lira.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

The 48-hour wave of diesel cuts and increases shows that pump prices in Türkiye are directly tied to the news flow from the Strait of Hormuz and to the exchange rate. As diesel is the main input in transport and agricultural costs, a litre price staying above 90 lira points to the energy component remaining elevated in September and October inflation.

Likely effects

InflationNegativeWeeks
Diesel holding at around 93 lira creates upward pressure on annual CPI, which stood at 31.51% in August, through the transport and food components.
Logistics and agricultureNegativeWeeks
The 2.55-lira-per-litre increase raises farmers' and hauliers' costs day by day during the harvest and sowing season.
Trade balanceNegative1–6 months
Brent staying above $100 enlarges the energy import bill and increases pressure on reserves via the current account deficit.

Possibilities, ranked

1
Volatile at a high level55%
Brent stays in a $95–105 band, and diesel fluctuates between 90 and 96 lira with weekly increases and cuts.
Watch: The path of Brent futures around $100 and the dollar/lira rate
2
New wave of increases30%
New attacks in the Strait of Hormuz lift Brent above $105, and diesel exceeds 96 lira.
Watch: Ship attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and European diesel margins
3
Lasting decline15%
A US–Iran settlement reopens the Strait of Hormuz, Brent falls below $90 and diesel approaches 85 lira.
Watch: An official Iranian statement on a timetable for reopening the Strait of Hormuz

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

Diesel (Istanbul European side)▲ +2.55 lira/litre
Diesel price per litre▲ 93.45 lira
Brent (24 Sep)▲ $100.79

Historical context