Skip to content
RegionTürkiye and Its Neighbourhood

MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints24 September 2026, Thursday

Turkish Defence Ministry demands prior coordination on the Greece–Greek Cypriot–Israel cable; EU allots €658 million to 898 km Crete–Cyprus link

At its weekly briefing on 24 September, the Ministry of National Defence said that laying cables and pipelines on the continental shelf notified to the UN in 2020 must be coordinated with Türkiye in advance. The project in question, the Great Sea Interconnector, has a capacity of 1,000 MW and its Crete–Cyprus leg is 898 km.

Location: EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN

According to a 24 September Habertürk report, Ministry of National Defence spokesman Rear Admiral Zeki Aktürk said at the weekly briefing after 10:00 that, under international law, cable and pipeline laying and scientific research on the continental shelf must be coordinated with Türkiye in advance, and that unauthorised activity disregarding its rights would not be permitted. The same briefing recalled the demilitarised status of the Eastern Aegean islands under the 1923 Lausanne and 1947 Paris treaties. According to Turkish Minute, Ankara bases this demand on the 2019 Libya maritime jurisdiction memorandum and the continental shelf coordinates it submitted to the UN in 2020.

According to a 25 September Turkish Minute report, the project envisages 898 km between Crete and Cyprus and around 324 km between Cyprus and Israel, with a capacity of up to 1,000 MW in each direction; the EU has allocated €658 million to the Crete–Cyprus link and Cyprus €100 million from its own recovery plan. Greek grid operator IPTO applied to the Cypriot and Israeli regulators for investment approval in August 2026. According to a 24 September ProtoThema report, Athens and Nicosia argue, based on Article 79 of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, that coastal state permission is not required for a cable and that permission applies to pipelines; Türkiye is not a party to the Convention. On the same day, 24 September, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu accused Erdoğan at the UN General Assembly of occupying northern Cyprus and threatening Greece. It is recalled that Türkiye deployed warships during survey work off Kasos and Karpathos in 2024.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

The Defence Ministry's 24 September statement ties the continental shelf claim based on the 2019 Libya memorandum directly to the route of the GSI, which carries a €658 million EU grant. The legal distinction (UNCLOS Article 79: cables free, pipelines subject to permission) shows that neither side is backing down; Netanyahu's emphasis on Cyprus the same day also makes Israel a party to the file. The most likely path is for the verbal tension to continue until a survey or cable-laying vessel appears in the field.

Likely effects

  • Project financingNegative1–6 months

    While IPTO's August 2026 investment approval application is pending, route risk could raise insurance and schedule costs on the 898 km Crete–Cyprus leg.

  • TürkiyeUncertain1–6 months

    With the precedent of its 2024 warship deployment, Ankara retains de facto bargaining power over the route; however, its stance against an EU-funded project adds new friction to relations with Brussels.

  • Eastern Mediterranean securityNegativeWeeks

    Combined with the Defence Ministry's warnings the same week on Greek Cypriot armament and the Eastern Aegean, and Netanyahu's 24 September UN speech, the diplomatic tone on the Türkiye–Israel–Greece axis is hardening.

Possibilities, ranked

  1. 1
    Verbal tension, calm at sea55%

    The parties restate their legal positions, but no new survey or laying activity begins in the disputed area.

    Watch: New NAVTEX or survey vessel off Kasos–Karpathos

  2. 2
    Survey vessel and escort30%

    Survey work resumes, Türkiye sends warships as in 2024 and the work is postponed.

    Watch: IPTO's announcement of a field schedule for the Crete–Cyprus leg

  3. 3
    Coordination formula15%

    A technical information channel on the route opens via the EU and tension eases.

    Watch: Agenda of the Athens–Ankara political dialogue meeting

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

  • GSI capacity▲ 1,000 MW
  • EU grant (Crete–Cyprus)▲ €658 million
  • Crete–Cyprus link▲ 898 km

Sources

  1. Habertürk — Ministry of National Defence statements on Greece, Cyprus and Israel
  2. Yeni Şafak — Defence Ministry warning: coordination with Türkiye a must for subsea cable
  3. Turkish Minute — Turkey says Greece-Cyprus-Israel power cable must be coordinated with Ankara
  4. ProtoThema — Cable or conduit: the distinction Ankara is overlooking regarding the Greece-Cyprus power interconnection
  5. Al-Monitor — Turkey warns Greece-Cyprus-Israel power cable needs Ankara's approval
  6. The Times of Israel — In fiery UN speech, Netanyahu blasts Iran, Qatar, Turkey