MediumV Technology Geopolitics & AI6 October 2026, Tuesday
Taiwanese memory maker Nanya can meet at most 60% of demand
Nanya Technology set its 11th consecutive monthly revenue record in September, at NT$45.09bn. According to Commercial Times, the company can meet only 50–60% of customer demand. Analysts expect DRAM prices to rise a further 10% in the fourth quarter.
Company data compiled by BigGo Finance show Nanya's third-quarter revenue topped NT$100bn for the first time, at NT$133.65bn. That is a 61.9% rise on the quarter and 611.7% on the year. Revenue for the first nine months reached NT$265.29bn, up 626.95% year on year. September revenue rose only 0.9% on August; growth is being carried by new contract prices that took effect in July, not by volume. Rival Winbond also posted its 10th straight monthly record in September, at NT$28.25bn.
The bottleneck stems from capacity choices. TrendForce reports that the major producers have devoted advanced-node capacity to server products. That has tightened supply of standard DRAM, the working memory chips used in PCs and servers. Nanya's multi-year contracts already lock up more than 60% of its supply. Institutional investors have raised their forecast for third-quarter average selling price growth from 32% to 50%. The board lifted the 2026 capital budget from NT$52bn to as much as NT$69.7bn; the extra funds will cover equipment prepayments for a new fab called 5A.
TrendForce expects standard DRAM contract prices to rise 10–15% in the fourth quarter, and NAND flash prices 15–20%. Increases in these two components directly raise input costs for electronics makers outside the AI server segment. Nanya president Lee Pei-Ing says the shortage will last several more quarters.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Memory remains the hidden bottleneck of AI investment. By shifting capacity to server memory, the major producers have turned standard DRAM from a second-tier product into a scarce input. That Nanya can meet only 50–60% of demand, and has raised its capital budget by 34%, suggests the squeeze could last until at least 2027.
Likely effects
- Electronics costsNegative1–6 months
Price rises of 10–20% in standard DRAM and NAND will squeeze margins at laptop, phone and automotive electronics makers, or be passed on to end users.
- Taiwanese exportsPositiveWeeks
Price-driven revenue growth will keep lifting the value of Taiwan's electronics exports. Growth that comes from price rather than volume carries cyclical fragility.
- TürkiyeNegative1–6 months
Türkiye's electronics assemblers and white-goods makers depend on imported memory components; the price rise lifts input costs for these sectors.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Shortage stretches into 202760%
New fabs add no meaningful supply before 2027, and standard DRAM contract prices rise by double digits in the fourth quarter too.
Watch: TrendForce fourth-quarter contract price data and Nanya's October revenue
- 2Demand slows and prices flatten30%
Consumer electronics demand cannot absorb higher prices, and increases slow to single digits in early 2027.
Watch: A quarterly fall in laptop and phone shipments
- 3Rapid supply response10%
The major producers shift part of their capacity back to standard DRAM, and prices turn earlier than expected.
Watch: Capacity allocation statements from Samsung and SK Hynix
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Nanya September revenue▲ NT$45.09bn
- Share of demand met▼ 50–60%
- Q4 DRAM price (forecast)▲ +10–15%