HighIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence2 November 2026, Monday
Drone strikes leave Sudan's grid hanging on a single dam
According to AP, drones struck substations in Northern, River Nile and Kassala states on 1–2 November. The 1,250-megawatt Merowe Dam now supplies more than 70% of Sudan's electricity. National generation has fallen from 4,400 megawatts before the war to 1,100 megawatts.
According to the AP report carried by DTN, the 1 November strikes knocked out the Dongola substation in Northern State and the Abu Hamad substation in River Nile State; a facility guard was killed in Dongola. Türkiye Today, citing Anadolu Agency, reported that the Aroma and New Halfa substations in Kassala State were hit on the morning of 2 November. The same report says 15 power facilities across the country were targeted in the past week. The Emergency Lawyers group also counts 15 substations struck since the start of October.
According to AP, Um Dabakir, the country's largest thermal plant at 500 megawatts, lost four transformers last week and three generating units were damaged. Two states, White Nile and North Kordofan, have been cut off from the grid. Merowe Dam, at 1,250 megawatts, provides more than 70% of electricity, while the other hydroelectric dams together produce no more than 100 megawatts. National output has dropped from 4,400 megawatts before the war to 1,100 megawatts.
The second-order effects are showing in farming and health. AP reports that irrigation pumps need either electricity or diesel, and diesel is unavailable in local markets just as winter planting begins; a household solar system costs about 5,000 dollars. The Sudan Doctors Network says the outages put hospitals, dialysis centres and blood banks at risk; at least 59,000 people have died in the war. The government blames the strikes on the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). On 31 October the foreign ministry alleged the drones were supplied by the UAE and launched from Ethiopia; the UAE denies the charge.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The drone campaign has reduced Sudan's grid to the capacity of one dam; if Merowe is hit, more than 70% of the country's electricity is at risk. Combined with the diesel shortage, the strikes directly constrain winter planting and health services. The allegation involving Ethiopia and the UAE raises cross-border tension but has not been independently verified.
Likely effects
- Food supplyNegative1–6 months
Irrigation pumps left without power or diesel constrain winter planting and the coming harvest.
- Regional tensionNegativeWeeks
Sudan's claim that the drones were launched from Ethiopia raises the risk of cross-border conflict between the two countries.
- Humanitarian situationNegativeWeeks
The outages threaten the functioning of hospitals, dialysis centres and the cold chain for medicines.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1The campaign continues60%
Strikes on substations continue at a weekly tempo and outages spread to new states.
Watch: Emergency Lawyers tallies and AP reporting
- 2Merowe is targeted25%
The dam or its outgoing lines are hit and the country falls into a widespread blackout.
Watch: Reports of drone strikes around Merowe
- 3Strikes slow down15%
Diplomatic pressure or air defences reduce the tempo of attacks.
Watch: The UN Security Council's response to Sudan's complaint
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- National power generation▼ 1,100 MW
- Merowe's share▼ >70%