MediumVI Energy Politics & Supply Security12 October 2026, Monday
OPEC cuts this year's demand growth forecast to a third of January's
OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais put 2026 global oil demand growth at 400,000 barrels a day in Riyadh on 12 October, against a forecast of 1.4 million at the start of the year. He said deferred demand would return in 2027, when growth would reach 1.7 million barrels a day.
According to Arab News, Al Ghais was speaking at the 25th WPC Energy Congress in Riyadh, which runs until 15 October, where he gave the 2026 demand growth forecast as 400,000 barrels a day. At the start of the year the forecast stood at 1.4 million barrels a day; the 1 million-barrel gap shows how far the war has suppressed demand. Oilprice notes that OPEC saw growth at 380,000 barrels a day in September, so the new figure is 20,000 barrels above the previous month's.
Asked why prices had not reached the $200 some had talked about, Al Ghais cited 3 factors. China cut imports because it had stockpiled earlier, many countries, led by the OECD, drew on strategic reserves, and demand slowed. He also described the Saudi East-West pipeline as an insurance policy for energy security. OPEC expects growth of 1.7 million barrels a day in 2027.
Comparison with other agencies puts the forecast in a different light. Oilprice says the International Energy Agency expects global consumption to fall by 2.5 million barrels a day in 2026 and recover by 2.6 million in 2027. The same report says Gulf oil exports reached 81% of pre-war levels in September. Crude and condensate shipments rose to 91%, while refined product exports stayed at 60%. Brent rose to $106.80 intraday on 12 October.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
OPEC's own figure says the market is being balanced not by extra supply but by lost demand and depleted stocks. A demand loss of 1 million barrels against January explains why prices have not gone to $200 while Gulf exports sit at 81%. If deferred demand returns in 2027 and stocks need refilling, the same supply gap will show up, this time without a buffer.
Likely effects
- Oil pricesUncertain1–6 months
Lost demand and reserve drawdowns are capping prices today; both are finite buffers, so the pressure is being pushed forward.
- Strategic reservesNegative6 months+
OECD reserve releases held prices down; refilling those stocks means extra purchases on top of 2027 demand.
- TürkiyeNegative1–6 months
Weaker demand may soften crude prices, but with Gulf product exports stuck at 60%, imported diesel and jet fuel stay expensive.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Forecast holds steady55%
OPEC keeps 2026 growth around 400,000 barrels in its November report and maintains its 2027 outlook.
Watch: OPEC's November monthly oil market report
- 2Further downward revision30%
Attacks on Hormuz and Fujairah cut exports again, and the demand forecast drops below 300,000 barrels.
Watch: Gulf exports falling below 81% of pre-war levels
- 3Demand returns early15%
A transit arrangement restores flows and OPEC revises its 2026 forecast up.
Watch: Announcement of a US–Iran transit arrangement
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- OPEC 2026 demand growth▼ 0.4m b/d
- Versus January forecast▼ −1m b/d
- OPEC 2027 demand growth▲ 1.7m b/d