MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints19 October 2026, Monday
Pakistan-Afghanistan trade falls to $358m in a single year
On Pakistani data, bilateral trade fell to 358 million dollars in 2025-26 from 1.3 billion a year earlier. On 19 October Wan Hai Lines stopped accepting Afghan cargo through Pakistani ports.
According to Trade Development Authority of Pakistan data, trade between the two countries fell to 358 million dollars in the 2025-26 fiscal year, from 1.3 billion the year before. The decline is reported at 74%. Torkham closed after the deadly clashes of 12 October 2025, and Kharlachi, Ghulam Khan, Angoor Ada and Chaman remain shut to trade.
The real break is on the transit side. Afghan transit trade has fallen to 11,592 containers and 367 million dollars, against roughly 89,000 containers and some 5 billion dollars before the Taliban's return. Carriers now read that contraction as a commercial judgement rather than a temporary disruption. On 19 October Taiwan's Wan Hai Lines indefinitely stopped accepting Afghan, Uzbek and Kazakh cargo through Pakistani ports.
The structural constraint is geographic necessity becoming substitutable. On World Bank data, 48% of Afghan imports came through Central Asian routes in August and 46% from Iran, with Pakistan's share near zero. Khan Jan Alokozay of the Afghanistan-Pakistan Joint Chamber of Commerce said the cost of a container from Karachi to Afghanistan had risen from roughly 2,000 dollars to 10,000, and the journey from ten days to two months.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The border closure is no longer a temporary disruption but a permanent relocation of trade routes. Carriers cutting bookings show the corridor will not revive the moment the gates reopen. Pakistan is losing its transit revenue and its leverage over Kabul at the same time. The most likely direction is the closure lasting a while longer.
Likely effects
- Pakistani transit revenueNegative1–6 months
As container numbers drop from 89,000 to 11,592, the port and road chain loses income.
- Afghan import costsNegativeWeeks
The shift to Central Asian and Iranian routes stretches transit time to two months and lifts container costs to as much as 10,000 dollars.
- Pakistan's bargaining powerNegative6 months+
Closing the border loses its force as a lever the more Kabul builds alternative routes.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Closure persists55%
The gates stay shut and carriers do not return to the Pakistani corridor.
Watch: An announcement reopening commercial transit at Torkham and Chaman
- 2Partial reopening30%
A limited number of gates open to certain product groups only.
Watch: A gate-by-gate transit permission notice from Pakistan's trade ministry
- 3The new route becomes permanent15%
Central Asian and Iranian corridors are locked in by contract and Pakistan's share falls for good.
Watch: Afghanistan's import route breakdown for the first quarter of 2027
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Bilateral trade volume▼ −74%
- Afghan transit containers▼ 11,592
- Karachi-Afghanistan container▲ $10,000