Skip to content
Vladimir Putin and Steve Witkoff shake hands in a Kremlin hall with red damask walls
RegionEurasia

HighIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence21 October 2026, Wednesday

Putin tells Witkoff he backs mid-November three-way talks in principle

US special envoy Witkoff met Putin for about 3 hours in St Petersburg on 21 October. According to Kremlin adviser Ushakov, Putin agreed in principle that three-way talks between the US, Russia and Ukraine could resume after 10 November.

Putin and US special envoy Witkoff at a Kremlin meeting (5 September 2026) — archive photo, not from the November talksPhoto: Kremlin.ru · CC BY 4.0 · resized · Source
Location: ST PETERSBURG

According to an AP report published by Military.com, the meeting took place at the Konstantin Palace, with Ushakov and Russian investment envoy Dmitriev at the table and Jared Kushner joining by video link. Ushakov first said the proposals from the 20 October talks in Oslo had little real value. He later told state television that, while not fully satisfied, they saw 1 step in the right direction. Norwegian Prime Minister Støre expects the three-way talks in mid-November. A US official said Witkoff and Kushner had proposed a 3-way meeting at technical level.

After the meeting, Stephen Hubbard, a US citizen held for more than 4 years, was released; Witkoff called it a goodwill gesture. Kyiv Post, citing the state agency TASS, says Witkoff thanked Putin on Trump's behalf for his decision on the diesel deal, and post-war US–Russia economic relations were also discussed. According to the same report, Lavrov said on 21 October that Moscow would hear out US proposals but make no political concessions. Zelenskiy announced on 20 October in Norway that Ukraine and the US had agreed a package of proposals that includes security guarantees.

Attacks continued on the ground. Kyiv Independent says a drone attack on Kyiv on the morning of 21 October killed at least 2 people, injured 2 and set fire to the 20th floor of a 24-storey building. AP reported 3 dead and 12 injured in overnight attacks on Kyiv; the two sources may be counting different time windows. Russia said it downed 373 Ukrainian drones the same night. AP recalls that the January and February rounds in Abu Dhabi and the February round in Geneva produced nothing beyond prisoner exchanges.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

The St Petersburg meeting produced a timetable, not a ceasefire: the three-way table will convene after 10 November at the earliest. Moscow agrees to return to talks while belittling the Oslo proposals and ruling out political concessions, so the bargaining remains stuck at its core. The most likely path is a technical round in mid-November that fails to reach a lasting ceasefire.

Likely effects

  • Energy infrastructureUncertainWeeks

    Energy measures are on Zelenskiy's priority list; if a pause in strikes is discussed at the technical round, attacks on refineries and the grid could ease.

  • US–Russia economicsUncertain1–6 months

    Thanks for the diesel deal and talk of post-war economic ties show Washington linking sanctions relief to diplomacy.

  • Civilian casualtiesNegativeWeeks

    Attacks that killed 2 to 3 people in Kyiv on 21 October show military pressure has not eased even as a negotiating timetable emerges.

Possibilities, ranked

  1. 1
    Technical round, limited results55%

    A three-way technical meeting takes place in mid-November; prisoner exchanges and humanitarian steps emerge, but no ceasefire.

    Watch: Announcement of a date and venue for the three-way technical meeting after 10 November

  2. 2
    Talks fail to convene30%

    Moscow holds its no-political-concessions line, the Oslo proposals are rejected and the date slips.

    Watch: The Kremlin failing to confirm a meeting date by mid-November

  3. 3
    Energy pause15%

    The parties agree a mutual pause in strikes covering refineries and substations.

    Watch: A joint announcement halting attacks on energy facilities

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

  • Length of meeting▲ ≈3 hours
  • Three-way talks, earliest▲ After 10 November
  • Dead in Kyiv attack▼ 2–3
  • Drones Russia says it downed▼ 373

Sources

  1. Military.com (AP) — Trump Envoy Witkoff Meets Putin in St. Petersburg for Ukraine War Talks
  2. Kyiv Independent — Ukraine war latest: Russia 'ready' to resume trilateral peace talks with US, Ukraine
  3. Kyiv Post — Witkoff Arrives in St. Petersburg for Putin Talks as US and Ukraine Agree on Peace Proposals