MediumVI Energy Politics & Supply Security12 October 2026, Monday
Riyadh energy congress opens without the oil majors' chief executives
The WPC Energy Congress, hosted by Saudi Arabia for the first time, opened on 12 October; according to the FT, the chief executives of ExxonMobil, Shell, BP and TotalEnergies cancelled. The energy minister said supply would continue whatever happens but gave no export figure.
A Financial Times report cited by Oilprice says the chief executives of ExxonMobil, Shell, BP and TotalEnergies were due at the 25th WPC Energy Congress in Riyadh but pulled out on 11 October; BP cited travel disruption. According to The National, King Khalid International Airport was hit 4 times in 5 days. The missile strike on 10 October killed 12 people and injured 309; the strike on 11 October killed 1 and injured 11.
Arab News reports that Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman told the congress that the 8-month crisis running since late February was the longest energy crisis in the kingdom's history. He declined to give export figures, only hinting that they would surprise the audience. According to The National, the minister told an International Energy Forum session on 11 October that supply would continue under all circumstances. He added that fear has no place in the Saudi vocabulary.
The National says the East-West pipeline, which bypasses Hormuz, halted after Houthi attacks in September and had recovered to about 5.8 million barrels a day by 6 October. The line's capacity is about 7 million barrels a day. Oilprice reports that the pipeline was shut for two weeks and that Red Sea exports from Yanbu have resumed. Brent traded around $104 on 12 October.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Riyadh says supply is flowing but will not show it in numbers, and the absence of Western oil chiefs signals that security risk in the capital has entered investment timetables. The only major outlet bypassing Hormuz is running at 5.8 million barrels a day, 83% of capacity. The most likely path is that exports continue but Saudi Arabia pays a higher risk premium on new production and services investment.
Likely effects
- InvestmentNegative1–6 months
The withdrawal of major company bosses suggests partnerships and service contracts on Saudi projects will be slower and costlier to put together.
- Supply securityNegativeWeeks
With the line running close to its 7 million-barrel capacity, a single strike could halt Red Sea exports again; there is no spare outlet.
- TransparencyUncertainWeeks
The minister's refusal to give export figures means the market will keep reading Saudi flows from tanker-tracking data.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Flows continue, risk premium persists55%
The East-West line runs in a 5–6 million-barrel range; airport attacks become rarer but foreign attendance stays thin.
Watch: King Khalid International Airport reopening at full capacity
- 2Pipeline targeted again30%
The Houthis strike pipeline pumping stations or Yanbu, and Red Sea exports stop again.
Watch: A fall in Yanbu loadings in tanker-tracking data
- 3Ceasefire brings normalisation15%
A ceasefire on the Yemen front stops the attacks and investor traffic returns.
Watch: Announcement of a Saudi–Houthi ceasefire
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- East-West flow (6 Oct)▲ 5.8m b/d
- Major CEOs absent▼ 4