MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints13 October 2026, Tuesday
At least seven of 12 big tanks lost at Rostov fuel terminal
The fire at the Rostov fuel-export terminal, hit by drones on 10 October, was put out on 13 October. Astra's analysis of imagery shows at least seven of its 12 large tanks out of action; the terminal handles 3.5 million tonnes a year.
According to The Moscow Times, the terminal, formerly known as Yug Rusi, belongs to the Novoshakhtinsk refinery and has 60,000 cubic metres of storage and capacity to transfer 3.5 million tonnes of product a year. The Supernova channel reported that seven tanks burned and another was damaged; there is no independent confirmation. Rostov governor Slyusar said more than 100 drones were downed, six people injured and two ships damaged in Azov.
Euromaidan Press says the attack came on the morning after Trump announced the Russian diesel deal on 9 October. The terminal opens onto the Sea of Azov via the Don and loads products onto river and sea tankers for export. Neither Kyiv nor Moscow formally claimed the strike; Russian Railways said the same night that the bridge between Rostov and Bataysk had been damaged.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The bottleneck for the diesel licence is not paperwork but terminals: more than half the Azov export capacity needed to carry the volume the licence opens up has been lost. Even with a pause in refinery strikes, terminal damage can cap exports for weeks. The likeliest path is that Russian product exports shift to Novorossiysk and the Baltic terminals.
Likely effects
- Russian product exportsNegativeWeeks
Tank losses at the 3.5-million-tonne terminal shrink diesel and fuel-oil shipments out of Azov; cargoes move to Black Sea and Baltic ports.
- Black Sea freightNegativeWeeks
Cargoes shifting to Novorossiysk raise tanker demand in a basin where war-risk insurance is already high.
- TürkiyeUncertainWeeks
Product tankers from Azov transit the Bosphorus; the terminal losses may temporarily reduce product traffic through the strait.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Runs at partial capacity55%
Limited loading continues with the remaining five tanks, and repairs take weeks.
Watch: October product loadings from Azov ports
- 2New strike30%
If the refinery pause breaks, the terminal and refinery become targets again.
Watch: Reports of a new drone attack in the Rostov region
- 3Fast repair15%
The tanks return before month-end and exports recover to former levels.
Watch: A company statement on the terminal's loading schedule
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Tanks out of action▼ 7/12
- Terminal capacity▼ 3.5m t/yr