MediumIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence8 October 2026, Thursday
Rubio says Türkiye cannot get F-35s until the S-400 issue is solved
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in an interview with Kathimerini after a visit to Athens published on 8 October, said transferring F-35s to Türkiye is not legally possible until the S-400 issue is resolved.
Türkiye Today reported on 8 October that Rubio said Trump wants the jets delivered if it can be done, because Türkiye has paid for some of them. He pointed to congressional law and strict conditions in the National Defense Authorization Act as the obstacle. According to the same report, six F-35s financed by Türkiye are waiting in the United States, and Ankara wants either readmission to the programme or a refund of about 1.45 billion dollars. Türkiye was removed from the programme in 2019 and hit with CAATSA sanctions over the S-400 air defence system it bought from Russia.
Euronews Türkçe reported on 8 October that Rubio said there were various options for resolving the issue but no conclusion had been reached. The same report says the Kremlin disclosed on 30 September that it had discussed moving the S-400s from Türkiye to another country. Greece, meanwhile, is buying 20 F-35s; the first delivery is expected at the end of 2028, and the deal includes an option for 20 more.
In the same interview Rubio said a conflict between Türkiye and Greece was unthinkable. According to Türkiye Today, he added that the dispute over the Crete–Cyprus power cable would be handled through diplomacy behind closed doors. There had been no official response from the Turkish government as of 8 October.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Rubio's remarks exposed the gap between the White House's political wishes and Congress's legal lock. Since the Ankara summit in July, the hoped-for F-35 return has been blocked by one requirement: the S-400 physically leaving Türkiye. The Kremlin's disclosure on 30 September that it discussed relocation is the only concrete opening. If that closes, haggling over a refund moves to the fore.
Likely effects
- Defence procurementNegative6 months+
With the F-35 route closed, the Turkish Air Force's modernisation leans on domestic platforms and other suppliers; Greece will receive 20 F-35s from 2028.
- Türkiye–Russia relationsUncertain1–6 months
Moving the S-400s to a third country depends on Moscow's consent; Ankara's Black Sea mediation and this bargaining sit at the same table.
- Aegean and Eastern MediterraneanPositiveWeeks
Rubio left the cable dispute to quiet diplomacy; Washington's refusal to openly take sides between two allies limits tension.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1The lock holds60%
The S-400 stays in Türkiye, the F-35 file rolls into 2027 and refund talks gain weight.
Watch: The Türkiye clause in the US Congress's defence authorization bill
- 2A relocation formula25%
A formula emerges among Ankara, Moscow and Washington for transferring the S-400s to a third country.
Watch: An official statement from the Kremlin or Ankara on an S-400 transfer
- 3Hardening15%
Cable surveys spark fresh tension in the Aegean and Congress adds new conditions on Türkiye.
Watch: A NAVTEX issued for Crete–Cyprus cable surveys
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Turkish F-35s waiting in the US▼ 6
- Refund sought▼ ≈$1.45bn
- Greek F-35 order▼ 20 (+20 option)