MediumIV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt5 October 2026, Monday
Russia's Finance Ministry quintuples currency purchases on oil windfall
Russia's Finance Ministry announced on 5 October that it will buy 279.42 billion roubles of foreign currency and gold between 7 October and 6 November under the budget rule. At 12.7 billion roubles a day, purchases are more than five times September's plan of 2.5 billion a day.
The budget rule channels oil and gas revenue above a base price into the National Wealth Fund; Kommersant puts that threshold at $59 a barrel. According to Vedomosti, the ministry expects 289.46 billion roubles of additional oil and gas revenue in October. September's actual revenue came in 10.04 billion roubles below expectations. In January and February the ministry operated in reverse, selling 192.1 billion and 226.8 billion roubles of currency and gold, and it suspended operations in March–April.
The Urals price is driving the increase. According to The Moscow Times, Russian crude averaged $92.10 in September, up from $67.10 in August. Net of the central bank's daily sales of 600 million roubles, net market purchases rise to 12.1 billion roubles a day, compared with 1.9 billion in the previous period. Economist Yegor Susin, quoted by The Moscow Times, estimates the purchases could weaken the rouble by 2–3 roubles to the dollar a month.
The mechanism works with a lag. Oil prices lifted by the Hormuz disruption are feeding back into Russia's budget, but The Moscow Times says export revenue takes 1.5–2 months to reach the currency market. The same report says more than 200 billion dollars of assets held abroad by oil exporters, and October tax payments, could soften the pressure on the rouble. In short, Moscow under sanctions is turning a price shock into a reserve buffer.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
High oil prices are bringing fresh revenue into Russia's budget, and the Finance Ministry is buying currency in the market to transfer the surplus to the National Wealth Fund. That replenishes the financing buffer of a war economy but could put pressure of a few roubles a month on the currency. The effect depends on Urals staying at September levels; if oil falls back, purchases shrink again.
Likely effects
- Russia's budget bufferPositive1–6 months
Transferring extra oil and gas revenue to the fund expands the liquid reserve with which Moscow can finance war spending under sanctions.
- Rouble exchange rateNegativeWeeks
With net market purchases rising from 1.9 billion to 12.1 billion roubles a day, and exporter FX arriving with a lag, pressure builds towards a weaker rouble.
- Sanctions pressureNegative1–6 months
While oil stays above $90, the revenue channel of sanctions weakens and Moscow gains flexibility to close its budget deficit.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Purchases continue, rouble weakens gradually55%
Urals stays near September levels, the ministry announces another large purchase plan in November and the rouble loses a few roubles a month.
Watch: The ministry's new purchase plan in early November and the rouble/dollar rate
- 2Exporter FX offsets the pressure30%
October tax payments and the repatriation of foreign currency assets absorb the purchases, and the rouble holds steady.
Watch: The rouble/dollar rate around the end-October tax period
- 3Oil falls, purchases shrink15%
Tension in Hormuz eases, Urals falls back and the November plan comes in below October's amount.
Watch: October average Urals falling well below September's $92.10
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Oct–Nov FX and gold purchases▲ 279.42bn roubles
- September average Urals▲ $92.10
- Expected extra oil and gas revenue▲ 289.46bn roubles