MediumV Technology Geopolitics & AI22 September 2026, Tuesday

Schumer urges no easing of AI chip controls ahead of the summit; Nvidia's 108 billion dollar forecast assumes zero sales to China

Senate Minority Leader Schumer on 22 September urged Trump to declare blocking China's access to the most advanced AI chips non-negotiable at the Xi summit; Democrats want 3 chip bills kept in the 2027 defence bill. The USTR had said the AI talks would not change export controls.

Location: WASHINGTON

According to a Punchbowl News report dated 22 September, Schumer urged Trump to declare, in his talks with Xi, that blocking China's access to the most advanced US AI technology is non-negotiable. The concern on Capitol Hill is that the administration could go beyond the Nvidia H200, which is currently licensed for sale, and allow more advanced Blackwell chips. Schumer, Senator Elizabeth Warren and other Democrats are pressing Republicans to pass 3 bipartisan bills (AI Overwatch Act, MATCH Act, Chip Security Act) attached to the fiscal 2027 National Defense Authorization Act. According to the same report, Nvidia, AMD and technology trade groups oppose these bills on the grounds that they would politicise export controls and invite Chinese retaliation.

Demand on the Chinese side is also limited: according to Punchbowl, Beijing is restricting its own companies' purchases of the H200 to support domestic rivals such as Huawei. According to a Motley Fool analysis dated 21 September, Nvidia's 108 billion dollar revenue forecast for the third quarter assumes no data centre sales to China at all. China accounted for about 8% of total revenue last quarter (about 7.9 billion dollars), but almost none of this was data centre compute products; H200 shipments made up less than 1% of data centre revenue. The company booked a 4.5 billion dollar charge related to China in April 2025 and a further 400 million dollars recently.

According to an NBC News report dated 20 September, Treasury Secretary Bessent proposed to China a notification mechanism for national security-level AI incidents; the USTR confirmed that these AI talks would not change existing export controls on advanced chips. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is also expected to attend the summit's state dinner on 24 September; whether any change to chip controls will be announced at the summit could not be verified at the time this entry was written.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

Chip export controls are being kept off the summit's formal AI agenda, but bipartisan pressure in Congress makes permitting Blackwell-class chips politically costly. China's restriction of its own H200 purchases and Nvidia zeroing out China in its forecast lower the likelihood of a rapid opening in chip sales emerging from the summit.

Likely effects

Semiconductor tradeNegative6 months+
Maintaining the controls accelerates China's shift to domestic accelerators (Huawei and others); US suppliers' share of the Chinese data centre market stays close to zero.
US domestic politicsUncertain1–6 months
Inclusion of the 3 bills in the NDAA could move chip export licensing from executive discretion to congressional oversight, narrowing Trump's room to use chips as a bargaining chip.
Türkiye's technology accessNegative1–6 months
Shipment-tracking rules such as the Chip Security Act tighten scrutiny of re-exports via third countries; compliance and licensing costs could rise for data centre and AI investments in Türkiye.

Possibilities, ranked

1
Controls stay as they are60%
Chip controls are left untouched at the summit; the AI dialogue advances only on incident notification and safety.
Watch: Whether the White House post-summit readout mentions the H200 or Blackwell
2
Signal of limited easing25%
Trump signals licensing flexibility for certain chip classes, and the backlash in Congress grows.
Watch: A new licence announcement from the Commerce Department's BIS and the Senate NDAA vote
3
Congress tightens controls15%
The 3 bills stay in the NDAA text and move towards enactment, narrowing executive discretion.
Watch: Retention of Chip Security Act provisions in the NDAA conference text

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

Nvidia Q3 forecast▲ $108 billion
China's share of Nvidia revenue▼ about 8%
Chip bills in NDAA▲ 3

Bottom line

Likely effects

Possibilities, ranked

Sources