MediumIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence29 September 2026, Tuesday

Saudi cabinet welcomes institutional progress on the Mecca pact

On 29 September the Saudi Council of Ministers reviewed the creation of a general secretariat and committees under the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement signed with Türkiye and Pakistan. The same session approved a visa exemption agreement with Türkiye for diplomatic and service passports.

Location: JEDDAH

AA reported on 29 September that the Saudi cabinet welcomed the establishment of a general secretariat and the formation of committees and working groups under the 3-way defence agreement between Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. A statement of 3 September from Türkiye's Ministry of National Defence (MSB) set out a decision taken at the Istanbul meeting of 31 August. The secretariat will be based in Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan will hold the post of secretary general for the first 3 years. The cabinet also condemned Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and on commercial ships. It called for freedom of navigation in Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb and the Red Sea.

The same session approved the Türkiye-Saudi Arabia visa exemption agreement signed on 6 May 2026. The agreement covers only holders of diplomatic and service passports; it allows visa-free stays of up to 90 days within 180 days. Sources differ on who chaired the session: AA named Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, while Ajel named King Salman. The Houthi-affiliated Saba agency claimed the same day that Saudi Arabia had carried out 35 air strikes on 5 cities in 24 hours; that claim could not be verified.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

One month after its first meeting on 31 August, the Mecca pact is moving from the level of declarations to the level of institutions, and Riyadh is taking ownership of it through a cabinet decision. With Houthi attacks continuing, institutionalisation could carry Türkiye into a more visible role in Red Sea security. The staffing and mandate of the joint command have not yet been disclosed.

Likely effects

Türkiye's defence diplomacyPositive1–6 months
The creation of the secretariat gives Türkiye a permanent seat at the table on Gulf security and lays the ground for defence industry cooperation.
Regional tensionNegative1–6 months
The pact taking institutional shape at the same time as Houthi attacks raises the risk that the Iranian axis will see Türkiye as a party.
Bilateral relationsPositiveWeeks
The visa exemption for official passports eases frequent military and diplomatic traffic between the two capitals.

Possibilities, ranked

1
Gradual institutionalisation60%
The secretariat and committees begin work, and a calendar of joint exercises and training is announced.
Watch: The secretary general taking office and the announcement of the first joint exercise
2
Operational step25%
Because of Houthi attacks, a joint maritime security mission in the Red Sea under the pact comes onto the agenda.
Watch: A decision by Türkiye to send naval assets to the Red Sea
3
Stagnation15%
Institutionalisation stays on paper, and the staffing of the joint command is delayed.
Watch: Whether the pact features in the MSB's weekly briefings

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

Term of the secretary general▲ 3 years
Visa-free stay▲ 90 days / 180 days