MediumIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence2 October 2026, Friday · 07:00 TRT (UTC+3)
Taiwan receives first two F-16V fighters after hold in Hawaii
Taiwan took delivery of the first 2 aircraft of its 66-jet F-16V Block 70 order, approved in 2019 and worth about 8 billion dollars, at midday on 2 October. They arrived at Chihhang Air Base in Taitung. The jets were due in late August but had been held in Hawaii without explanation ahead of the Trump–Xi meeting.
According to Focus Taiwan, the jets, with tail numbers 6727 and 6728, landed around midday local time, about 07.00 TRT. The total order is worth 247.2 billion Taiwan dollars. According to AeroTime, 56 of the jets are single-seat and 10 are two-seat, and deliveries were originally due to finish in 2023. The delay is attributed to the relocation and restart of the production line, supply chain disruption and software problems.
According to the Taipei Times, President William Lai called the delivery an important milestone for air defence. Defence Minister Wellington Koo said more than 2 aircraft would arrive this year but gave no number. AeroTime writes that the remaining deliveries will be spread across 2027 and 2028. The aircraft are going to the 7th Tactical Fighter Wing, established on 1 December 2023.
The delivery came in a week of lingering doubts about Washington's commitment to Taiwan. According to AeroTime, a separate arms package worth about 14 billion dollars remains on hold following objections from China. As of 2 October, no schedule had been announced for the remaining 64 aircraft.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The arrival of 2 jets shows Washington did not halt deliveries entirely after the Trump–Xi meeting. Yet only 3% of the 66-jet programme has been delivered, and the 14 billion dollar package is still on hold. The most likely path is slow continued aircraft deliveries, with new arms sales tied to the US–China calendar.
Likely effects
- Taiwan's air defencePositive6 months+
The first 2 Block 70s start conversion training for the 7th Tactical Fighter Wing. However, the gap of 64 aircraft may persist until 2028.
- US–Taiwan trustNegative1–6 months
Holding the jets in Hawaii without explanation showed that deliveries can be tied to a political calendar, deepening doubts in Taipei.
- Chinese responseNegativeWeeks
Beijing is likely to react sharply to the delivery. Its response could be used as leverage in bargaining over the future of the 14 billion dollar package.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Slow but continuing deliveries60%
A few more jets arrive by the end of the year, and the 14 billion dollar package is deferred until after APEC.
Watch: The number of additional deliveries the Ministry of National Defense announces by December
- 2Fresh postponement25%
Subsequent deliveries are again held without explanation because of US–China ceasefire talks.
Watch: Taiwanese press reports that further jets are being held in Hawaii or the US
- 3Package also released15%
Following the delivery, Washington notifies Congress of the arms package on hold.
Watch: A new sale notification for Taiwan from the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Delivered / ordered▲ 2 / 66
- Programme cost▼ ≈$8bn
- Arms package on hold▼ ≈$14bn