LowV Technology Geopolitics & AI26 September 2026, Saturday
Taiwan has approved only 44 billion dollars of TSMC's US investment
According to Focus Taiwan on 26 September, Taiwan's Ministry of Economic Affairs has approved TSMC applications to invest a total of 44 billion dollars in the United States since December 2020. The company's announced plan for Arizona, however, is worth 265 billion dollars, so the approved amount is roughly one sixth of it.
According to a list from the ministry's Department of Investment Review, the first approval, in December 2020, was 30.001 million dollars to set up the Arizona subsidiary. It was followed by 3.47 billion dollars the same month, 3.5 billion dollars in March 2023, 4.5 billion dollars in September 2023, 5 billion dollars in June 2024 and 7.5 billion dollars in September 2024. The largest tranche was a 20 billion dollar capital increase approved in July 2026. Focus Taiwan's report of 2 July described that approval as the sixth, while its 26 September report refers to 7 applications in total; the two counts conflict.
The July approval covered a 12-inch wafer fab and an advanced packaging facility in Arizona. In March 2025, TSMC added 100 billion dollars to its existing 65 billion dollar plan, targeting six advanced fabs, two packaging facilities and a research centre. The company operates 19 advanced facilities in Taiwan and is building 13 new fabs and packaging plants; its 2026 capital expenditure forecast is 60–64 billion dollars.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The gap between the 44 billion dollars approved and the 265 billion dollar plan announced shows that most of TSMC's US commitment has yet to pass Taipei's review. Read alongside the 13 plants under construction in Taiwan, the bulk of leading-edge capacity stays on the island. The transfer to the US is proceeding gradually and depends on approvals.
Likely effects
- US–Taiwan chip relationsUncertain1–6 months
With approvals at 44 billion dollars since 2020, Washington may keep up pressure to monitor and accelerate the 265 billion dollar commitment.
- Taiwan's bargaining powerPositive6 months+
The authority to approve outward investment gives Taipei control over when, and to what extent, leading-edge technology goes to the United States.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Gradual new approvals65%
TSMC files new capital increase applications for its new Arizona fabs through 2027, and the ministry approves them.
Watch: Monthly approval lists from the Ministry of Economic Affairs' Department of Investment Review
- 2Acceleration under US pressure30%
Tariff and chip talks push TSMC to transfer larger tranches to the US more quickly.
Watch: Statements on chip investment in US–Taiwan trade talks
- 3Approvals slow5%
Taiwan slows approvals with new rules limiting the export of the most advanced nodes.
Watch: Legislative changes on Taiwan's exports of advanced technology
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Approved US investment▲ $44 billion
- Announced Arizona plan▲ $265 billion
- Plants under construction in Taiwan▲ 13