MediumIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence29 September 2026, Tuesday
Taiwan's F-16V delivery slips as US arms sales hang on Trump-Xi talks
Taiwan's Defence Minister Wellington Koo said on 29 September that the US had shown goodwill over the delayed delivery of 66 F-16V Block 70 aircraft, but that the contract has no financial penalty clause. Reports recalled that Trump put a 14 billion dollar arms package on hold after his visit to Beijing in May 2026.
Focus Taiwan reported on 29 September that Taiwan's Air Force spent 247.2 billion Taiwan dollars between 2020 and 2026 on 66 new F-16V Block 70 aircraft. All of them were due to be delivered by the end of this year, but the relocation of the production line and supply chain disruptions delayed the programme. To speed up delivery, Lockheed Martin moved to 2 shifts and raised production to 20 hours a day. The first 2 aircraft left the US on 17 August and are waiting in Hawaii before flying on to Taiwan. Koo said Taiwan will receive no financial compensation because the contract has no penalty for delay. China Times wrote that additional technical support, spare parts and an extended warranty were possible.
Taipei Times reported on 29 September that Koo said Taiwan had received repeated statements from the US that its Taiwan policy had not changed, and that talks on arms sales were continuing. According to the same report, Trump put a 14 billion dollar arms package on hold after his visit to Beijing in May 2026. At a forum covered by Focus Taiwan the same day, Ma Chun-wei of Tamkang University said further Trump-Xi meetings before the end of the year could make a new sales announcement harder. At the same forum, a presentation by Chen Chih-chieh based on Defence Ministry data showed 1,402 Chinese military aircraft entries into Taiwan's air defence identification zone (ADIZ) this year. The presentation listed 3,002 entries for January–September 2025. The 2026 figure could not be verified, as the presentation did not state its cut-off date.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Taiwan's arms procurement faces two separate bottlenecks: the delay on the production line and the bargaining between Washington and Beijing. The 14 billion dollar package being on hold shows arms sales could become a bargaining chip in the US–China relationship. The fall in ADIZ entries may indicate that Beijing has temporarily eased military pressure, but grey-zone pressure continues.
Likely effects
- Taiwan's air defenceNegative1–6 months
The 66 F-16Vs missing their year-end target delays Taiwan's timetable for renewing its ageing fleet and sets back the air power balance.
- US–China bargainingUncertainWeeks
The Trump–Xi meetings planned before the end of the year postpone new sales announcements and give Beijing the chance to bring arms sales to the table.
- F-16 buyersNegative1–6 months
Lockheed Martin's delay on the line and its production pace of 20 hours a day point to schedule risk for other buyers awaiting delivery from the same line.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Deliveries continue, new sales are postponed60%
The first F-16Vs reach Taiwan, but no new arms sale is announced before the end of the year.
Watch: An announcement that the 2 F-16Vs in Hawaii have arrived in Taiwan
- 2Sales enter the bargaining25%
Beijing ties a halt to arms sales to the trade truce, and the pending package stays in limbo for an extended period.
Watch: Wording on arms sales to Taiwan in US–China joint statements
- 3Washington approves the package15%
If China's pressure increases, the US notifies Congress of the 14 billion dollar package.
Watch: A congressional notification by the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- F-16V programme▲ NT$247.2 billion
- Arms package on hold▲ $14 billion
- ADIZ entries, 2026 (presentation)▼ 1,402