LowIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence8 September 2026, Tuesday
Philippine Defence Secretary Teodoro handed a Chinese note rejecting the 2016 arbitral ruling on stage at a Seoul forum; Teodoro calls it bullying
At the 8 September session of the Seoul Defense Dialogue, a note sent by China's military attaché in Seoul was passed to Teodoro during his remarks. Teodoro read it aloud and accused Beijing of violating UNCLOS and disrespecting host Korea.
According to Philstar and Fox News, on 8 September 2026, during a panel on grey-zone coercion at the Seoul Defense Dialogue organised by South Korea's Ministry of National Defense, Teodoro was handed a handwritten note. The note stated that China regards the South China Sea arbitral ruling as contrary to international law and non-binding, and that it will never accept it. Teodoro read the note and said China rejects the ruling because it lost. He described the incident as coercion, bullying and aggression, and stressed that it showed disrespect for UNCLOS and for host Korea.
The incident shows that Manila–Beijing tension, which escalated in July with water cannon and stick-wielding clashes at Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal, has spilled over into diplomatic platforms. According to Philstar, in June 2026 China had banned Teodoro and his family from entering mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau. That the dispute played out at a forum hosted by a third country, South Korea, reveals how persistently Beijing voices its stance against the arbitral ruling in regional security discussions. This in turn weakens the prospects for consensus in the ASEAN code of conduct negotiations.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The incident does not change the balance at sea, but it is a diplomatic rupture showing how hardened positions between Manila and Beijing have become. China taking its objection to the arbitration ruling to a third country's forum signals the South China Sea dispute will continue in confrontational language on regional security platforms too. The most likely path is tension continuing at the level of rhetoric and progress in ASEAN code of conduct talks becoming even harder.
Likely effects
- South China Sea diplomacyNegative1–6 months
Beijing restating on a forum stage that it will never accept the 2016 ruling narrows the ground for compromise. This weakens the prospect of reaching a binding text in ASEAN code of conduct negotiations.
- China–South Korea relationsNegativeWeeks
The note being delivered by the military attaché in Seoul at a forum hosted by Korea could cause diplomatic unease in Seoul. The incident strains South Korea's role as a neutral host in regional disputes.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Tension stays rhetorical55%
The parties restate positions through statements, but the incident does not turn into a new clash at sea; code of conduct talks progress slowly.
Watch: Statements from the Chinese and Philippine foreign ministries and Seoul's official reaction to the incident.
- 2New friction at sea40%
Diplomatic tension spills over into new water cannon or close-contact incidents at Scarborough Shoal or Second Thomas Shoal.
Watch: Reports of new contact or water cannon use between coast guard vessels at the shoals.
- 3Diplomatic easing5%
The parties reopen bilateral channels and begin a dialogue that limits the impact of the incident.
Watch: Announcement of a bilateral consultation meeting on the South China Sea between Manila and Beijing.
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.