HighI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints26 September 2026, Saturday
Trump says 29 ships left Hormuz overnight; independent tracking data show single-digit transits, barrel estimates range from 3.7 to 16.4 million
Trump said on 26 September that 29 ships had left the Strait of Hormuz the previous night and that the US had 'total control' of the strait. Yet commodity vessel transits for 25 September fell to single digits; IMF PortWatch's latest published daily figure shows only 1 transit, for 20 September. Estimates of daily crude flows differ by a factor of more than 4 depending on the source.
According to Fox News's live coverage on 26 September, Trump said as he left the White House that '29 ships got out last night'; the same coverage reported that CENTCOM had redirected 122 commercial vessels to enforce the blockade as of Friday and that commercial traffic was around 75% below pre-conflict levels. According to CBS News, the US military escorted around 40 million barrels over the past 48 hours and the blockade turned back 7 ships in the past two days. According to Fox, UKMTO has recorded 43 projectile strike incidents since 26 July, 26 of them on the route south of Oman.
Independent data paint a much lower picture. Straits.live's daily brief of 26 September states that IMF PortWatch recorded 1 transit for 20 September, against a pre-crisis average of 85 a day, and that 313 vessels with AIS switched on were waiting within the monitoring box. Global Energy Flow, citing the Khaleej Times, notes that commodity transits fell to single digits on 25 September, and that crude flow estimates are 3.7 million barrels a day for Tankertrackers, 6–8 million barrels for Bloomberg and around 16.4 million barrels for the value derived from CENTCOM's statement. The same source stresses that because ship-to-ship transfers off Oman are carried out with transponders switched off, every transit count is a floor and every official figure a ceiling. The exact daily transit counts for 25 and 26 September could not be verified.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The gap between Washington's escort and barrel figures and the transit counts of independent trackers is more than fourfold. Because dark transfers pull counts down and official statements push them up, the true flow most probably lies between the two extremes; but both sides acknowledge that the strait is far from normal. The market will continue to carry this uncertainty as a risk premium.
Likely effects
- Oil supplyNegativeWeeks
Estimates ranging from 3.7 to 16.4 million barrels a day show that the real supply shortfall cannot be known; this uncertainty amplifies price volatility.
- Freight and insuranceNegative1–6 months
43 projectile strikes since 26 July, 26 of them on the southern Oman route: insurers will continue to regard the alternative route as risky too.
- TürkiyeNegativeWeeks
Uncertainty over flows through Hormuz leaves Türkiye's oil import bill and current account calculations dependent on volatility in the Brent price.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Single-digit transits persist55%
Independent counts stay below 20 a day, the US keeps publishing escort figures, and the gap does not close.
Watch: IMF PortWatch daily values for 21–26 September
- 2Escorted departures confirmed30%
PortWatch and commercial trackers record a marked jump on 25–26 September, largely confirming the 29-ship claim.
Watch: More than 25 transits in PortWatch data for 25 and 26 September once published
- 3New wave of attacks15%
New attacks on escorted convoys or the Oman route push transits down further.
Watch: New UKMTO incident alerts
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Hormuz transits (PortWatch, 20 Sep)▼ 1
- UKMTO projectile strikes (since 26 Jul)▼ 43
Historical context
Strait of Hormuz transits, last 6 months
- 109/09 · US and Iran strike tankers in the largest wave of attacks on shipping since the war began
- 213/09 · Panama-flagged tanker El Gaia struck off Oman, two crew members missing
- 314/09 · Ship-tracking data at Hormuz contradict the US Energy Secretary's claim of 10 million barrels a day in flows
- 417/09 · European gas storage enters winter 68.5% full as TTF traded in a 77-79 euro band on 17 September
- 522/09 · Brent falls from 104.82 dollars on 17 September to 100.05 dollars on 22 September as Hormuz transit data conflict
- 622/09 · Iran puts an offer to reopen Hormuz within 7 days on the table; the same day a parliamentary committee approves fines of 20% of cargo for violators
- 722/09 · Trump meets 12 regional countries including Türkiye at the UN, US and Iranian delegations talk for 3 hours; Tehran sets 3 conditions on Hormuz
- 823/09 · Bulk carrier Cape Dao hit by two projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz, 1 Indian seafarer killed; IMO counts 83 attacks and 23 deaths since the conflict began
- 923/09 · Iran raises its conditions for reopening Hormuz to 7; according to Kpler, only 3 commodity vessels transited the strait on 22 September
- 1024/09 · 10 commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on 23 September, 9 of them inbound to the Gulf; preliminary data for 22 September revised from 3 to 7 ships
- 1124/09 · Tracked Hormuz transits fell to 9 on 24 September, 8 of them outbound; 23 September revised from 10 to 14, while The National gave 13 for the same day