MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints1 October 2026, Thursday

Türkiye–Ukraine free trade agreement enters into force four years after signing

The Türkiye–Ukraine Free Trade Agreement, signed in Kyiv on 3 February 2022, entered into force on 1 October 2026. Tariff preferences for Ukrainian goods apply immediately, and those for Turkish goods from 1 January 2027. The two sides are targeting 10 billion dollars of trade in the near term.

Location: ANKARA–KYIV

Ukraine's parliament ratified the agreement by a law dated 14 July 2026; Türkiye had completed ratification in 2024. According to Ukraine-based Interfax-Ukraine and PRM, implementation comes in 2 stages. Preferential tariffs on Ukraine's exports to Türkiye start on 1 October, and those on Turkish goods entering Ukraine on 1 January 2027. According to AA, the Ministry of Trade also said customs duty arrangements would take effect on 1 January 2027. Besides trade in goods, the agreement covers services, investment, e-commerce, and quota-free bilateral and transit transport.

The coverage rate varies by source. According to PRM, Türkiye is removing duties on 10,337 tariff lines, about 95% of the goods Ukraine exports to Türkiye. Quotas or reduced duties will apply to 1,348 lines. Former Ukrainian Economy Minister Oleksiy Sobolev said 84% of product groups are fully liberalised and 6% are subject to quotas. Trade Minister Ömer Bolat, for his part, had said about 90% of trade would be liberalised.

According to Bolat's figures cited by Ekonomi Gazetesi, bilateral trade was 6.2 billion dollars in 2024 and 6.6 billion dollars in 2025. It rose 10% in the first 6 months of 2026 to about 3.2 billion dollars. Reaching the 10 billion dollar target requires volume to grow by about 52% from the 2025 level. UkrAgroConsult reported on 19 September that the London insurance market had designated almost all of the Black Sea a war-risk zone. Only the territorial waters of Türkiye, Romania, Bulgaria and Georgia were excluded. That means additional premiums for shipping between the two countries.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

The agreement lets Türkiye lock in preferential access while Ukraine's integration with the EU continues. But the tariff advantage runs one way for the first 3 months, and the Black Sea that carries the goods is a war-risk zone. The most likely path is that the 10 billion dollar target is still held back by insurance and port constraints in 2027.

Likely effects

Turkish importers and industryPositiveWeeks
Duties are removed on 10,337 lines from Ukraine, creating a cost advantage in inputs such as grain, metals and oils. Freight and insurance, however, will determine volumes.
Turkish exportersUncertain1–6 months
Preferential access for Turkish goods starts on 1 January 2027, so exporters' advantage reaches prices 3 months later at the earliest.
Black Sea logisticsPositive6 months+
As trade grows, the exclusion of Turkish territorial waters from the war-risk zone could make Turkish ports prominent as transhipment points.

Possibilities, ranked

1
Gradual growth, volume capped by insurance55%
Trade rises above the 6.6 billion dollars of 2025 but does not reach 10 billion dollars in 2027.
Watch: TurkStat monthly foreign trade data with Ukraine and changes to the JWC list
2
Rapid jump25%
A safe navigation mechanism is set up in the Black Sea, Ukrainian ports open and the tariff advantage quickly turns into volume.
Watch: Agreement on Türkiye's safe navigation draft and monthly grain exports from Odesa ports
3
War freezes the agreement20%
Port attacks increase, trade falls below the 2025 level and the agreement remains on paper.
Watch: Port attacks in the Odesa region and the quarterly change in bilateral trade

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

Zero-duty lines (Turkish side)▲ 10,337
Bilateral trade in 2025▲ $6.6 billion
Trade target▲ $10 billion

Bottom line

Likely effects

Possibilities, ranked

Sources