HighIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence15 October 2026, Thursday
Ukraine ends the energy truce as Ryazan refinery comes under fire again
Zelenskiy announced on 15 October that the ban on strikes against Russian refineries had been lifted; hours later a fire broke out at the Ryazan refinery, about 180 km south of Moscow. Ukraine had paused for three days.
According to NBC, Zelenskiy told the Financial Times on 15 October that the ban on refinery strikes had been lifted. Ukraine had paused for three days after the energy ceasefire Trump declared unilaterally; Russia kept attacking the grid throughout. Hours later a fire broke out at the Ryazan refinery. Governor Pavel Malkov confirmed the fire, and the Russian Defence Ministry said a large-scale attack had been attempted. According to Al Jazeera, Russia launched more than 850 drones from midnight to morning on 15 October and struck 15 regions; three people were killed in Kirovohrad during an attack lasting more than 10 hours.
Early warning and satellite links lie behind the rupture. Zelenskiy said several ballistic strikes on Kyiv came without warning from partners; Trump maintains he has not halted intelligence sharing. Kyiv said on 14 October that Starlink terminals had slowed, and chargé d'affaires Denys Sienik said on 15 October that Starshield speeds had returned to previous levels for now. Zelenskiy said Ukraine would pause energy strikes again only if the US supplies Patriot interceptors. Washington's pressure is tied to a deal that relies on Russia exporting 1.8 million tonnes of diesel.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The energy ceasefire declared on 11 October collapsed in practice within four days: Kyiv took back its refinery card and Moscow answered with more than 850 drones in a single night. The price of a refinery pause has been set at Patriot interceptors, while the diesel deal in Washington's hands depends on Russian refineries running. The most likely path is that tit-for-tat energy strikes continue through the winter and US–Kyiv tensions deepen.
Likely effects
- Diesel supplyNegativeWeeks
With Russian refineries back in the firing line, 1.8 million tonnes of diesel exports are at risk; importers that rely on Russian diesel, Türkiye included, are exposed to supply surprises.
- Ukrainian gridNegativeWeeks
More than 850 drones in one night and gaps in early warning will deepen power and heating outages before winter.
- US–UkraineNegative1–6 months
The dispute over intelligence sharing and Starshield turns Kyiv's dependence on the US into a bargaining chip; European funding gains weight.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Tit-for-tat energy war60%
Kyiv keeps striking refineries and terminals, Moscow keeps hitting the grid; the ceasefire exists only on paper.
Watch: New Russian refinery outages and the number of power cuts in Ukraine
- 2Pause in exchange for Patriots25%
Washington opens interceptor deliveries and Kyiv pauses refinery strikes again.
Watch: A US announcement of new Patriot interceptor deliveries to Ukraine
- 3Support cuts deepen15%
The US formally restricts intelligence or Starshield access and Kyiv's defences weaken.
Watch: A fresh drop in Starshield speeds or a formal restriction
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Russian drones (one night)▼ 850+
- Regions hit▼ 15