Witkoff meets Zelensky in Oslo, with Putin next in St Petersburg

According to the Kyiv Independent, the Oslo table on 20 October also included representatives of 4 countries, the UK, Germany, France and Poland, along with EU and NATO officials; Jared Kushner joined remotely, citing illness. Zelensky said air defence and joint production would also be discussed, but no agreement was announced from the talks in the 3 formats he had flagged. Axios, as cited by The Moscow Times, reported that Witkoff wants to take ideas drawn up with Ukraine and Europe to Moscow on 21 October and test whether a comprehensive proposal can serve as a basis for negotiation.

Kremlin spokesman Peskov said on 20 October that Moscow hoped Witkoff would 'brief' Putin and expected the meeting 'in the very near future'. The New York Times reported that the agenda also includes the release of Stephen Hubbard, a 72-year-old US citizen captured in 2022. Trump said on 20 October that Ukraine should want to end the war and that Russia was advancing.

The structural constraint at the table is territory. The Moscow Times says Putin's precondition for a ceasefire is that Ukraine cede control of the whole Donetsk region to Russia, which Kyiv was still refusing as of 20 October. Bloomberg reported in September that Putin expects to take all of Donetsk by the end of February 2027. Washington's leverage is narrowing too. The Kyiv Independent says the US supplies Ukraine with about 12 Patriot interceptors a month, and Kyiv complains that missiles paid for by allies are being held back as a pressure tool.