HighIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence5 October 2026, Monday

Yemen's government launches Saudi-backed offensive to retake Sanaa

Yemen's internationally recognised government announced Operation Dawn of Yemen on 5 October to retake Sanaa from the Houthis. The Saudi-led coalition said it was providing support with 100 combat aircraft, and government forces said they had taken Mokha and the Bab el-Mandeb coast.

Location: MOKHA

According to The National, Presidential Leadership Council chairman Rashad al-Alimi announced the operation. Coalition spokesman Major General Turki al-Maliki said 100 combat aircraft took part and 324 high-value Houthi targets were destroyed. Government forces said they controlled the Bab el-Mandeb strait, the Dhubab area and its airport, and the port of Mokha 45 km to the north. Haaretz reports that the offensive came straight after the Houthi attack on Aramco on 3 October.

The picture on the ground could not be verified for either side. According to CBS News, Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree rejected the government's claims of gains and said his forces were holding their positions. The Houthis claimed to have struck King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh and the Aramco refinery at Rabigh. Saudi officials confirmed the airport attack but reported only three people lightly injured; the refinery claim was not confirmed. According to The New Arab, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said negotiations with the US were pointless.

The offensive's real objective is the coastline. According to The National, the government first aims to drive the Houthis off the southern Red Sea coast, then push on Mokha and Sanaa. With Hormuz closed, Bab el-Mandeb has become a critical alternative outlet for Gulf oil heading to Asia via the Red Sea. The National says fighting since 6 August has caused more than 5,000 casualties, 959 of them fatal.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

Rather than stay on the defensive against Houthi attacks, Saudi Arabia has moved to retake the coast by backing a ground offensive with air power. The claimed gains have not been independently verified and the Houthis deny them. Lasting control of the coastline could reduce risk at Bab el-Mandeb. In the near term, however, Houthi retaliation concentrated on Saudi infrastructure is more likely.

Likely effects

Saudi energy infrastructureNegativeWeeks
The Houthis claim to have targeted Riyadh airport and the Rabigh refinery. While the offensive continues, the risk of attacks on Red Sea coast facilities at Yanbu and Rabigh rises.
Red Sea transitsUncertain1–6 months
If the Bab el-Mandeb coast passes to government control, the Houthis' capacity to attack ships shrinks; while fighting continues, shipowners will keep avoiding the area.
US–Iran negotiationsNegative1–6 months
Iran declaring talks pointless shows the Yemen front is now tied to the US–Iran deadlock, weakening the prospect of a regional ceasefire.

Possibilities, ranked

1
Partial coastal gains, protracted war55%
Government forces hold part of the coastline but the advance on Sanaa slows; Houthi retaliation against Saudi targets continues.
Watch: Independent confirmation of control in Mokha and Dhubab; frequency of Houthi missile attacks
2
Rapid coastal control25%
The government takes the coast up to Hodeidah, and the risk of attacks on ships at Bab el-Mandeb drops markedly.
Watch: Developments on the Hodeidah front and daily Bab el-Mandeb transit counts
3
Offensive backfires20%
The Houthis reverse the gains and launch an attack that causes heavy damage to Saudi energy facilities.
Watch: Aramco announcing damage or an output disruption at a facility

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

Coalition combat aircraft▲ 100
Targets reported destroyed▲ 324
Injured in Riyadh (official)▲ 3

Bottom line

Likely effects

Possibilities, ranked

Sources