MediumIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence25 September 2026, Friday
150 fighters killed in 24 hours in Yemen, 98 government and 52 Houthi; Houthi losses reach 516 in September, displacement figures range from 158,000 to 230,000
According to figures compiled by AFP and cited by Al Jazeera on 25 September, 98 government soldiers and 52 Houthis were killed in 24 hours of fighting in Lahj, Taiz, Hodeidah and Saada. The number of displaced people ranges from 158,000 to more than 230,000 depending on the source.
According to a 25 September Al Jazeera report, the toll compiled by AFP shows 98 fighters from the government side and 52 Houthis killed in the last 24 hours; fighting intensified in the Kahboub mountains overlooking Bab el-Mandeb and along the Lahj–Taiz line. A 24 September Yemen Online report bases the same figures of 98 and 52 on Yemeni sources and writes that the fighting revolves around control of the Hayjat el-Abd road linking Taiz and Aden. According to a Yemen Monitor count dated 26 September, funerals announced in Houthi-aligned media document the deaths of 787 Houthi fighters between 1 July and 24 September: 93 in July, 178 in August and 516 in September up to the 24th; 94 fighters were buried in 2 days on 23–24 September. The outlet notes that this count may not reflect the full actual losses.
Figures also diverge in the overall toll. According to a 24 September Al Jazeera report, the WHO counts 674 dead and around 3,000 wounded since 6 August, while UN Human Rights has documented 32 civilian deaths since August, including 15 children and 3 women; the Houthis reported 52 Saudi air strikes. On displacement, the same outlet gave a figure of at least 158,000 people on 24 September, based on camp management unit data, and on 25 September more than 230,000 people since the start of September. The total number of internally displaced people in Yemen is 5.2 million.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The deaths of 150 fighters in a single day and Houthi losses reaching 516 in September show that the fighting around the Kahboub mountains and the Hayjat el-Abd road has entered the most intense phase of the war. The figures are produced by different methods: the funeral count, the AFP compilation and WHO data cannot be substituted for one another; the gap between 158,000 and 230,000 in displacement may also stem from differences in definition and scope.
Likely effects
- Bab el-Mandeb securityNegative1–6 months
The Kahboub heights overlook Bab el-Mandeb; their capture by the Houthis would cut the link between the coast and the government-held south and put the strait's 26–27 daily transits at risk.
- Humanitarian situationNegativeWeeks
The displacement of 158,000–230,000 people in September alone adds to the existing burden of 5.2 million and is straining camps in Lahj and Aden.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1War of attrition continues60%
The front along the Kahboub and Hayjat el-Abd line changes hands for weeks and daily losses stay high.
Watch: Who controls the Hayjat el-Abd road
- 2Houthi breakthrough25%
The Houthis take the Kahboub heights, the Taiz–Aden link is cut and displacement exceeds 250,000.
Watch: Confirmation from both sides of the fall of the Kahboub heights
- 3Saudi-backed counter-offensive15%
With Mecca pact support and Saudi air power, government forces retake lost positions.
Watch: Daily number of Saudi air strikes
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Fighters killed in 24 hours▲ 150 (98+52)
- Houthi losses, Sep (to the 24th)▲ 516
- Displaced (September)▲ 158,000–230,000+
Sources
- Al Jazeera — Saudi, Turkish, Pakistani chiefs plan urgent talks amid Yemen fighting
- Yemen Online — A bloody 24 hours in Yemen: the Houthi advance on a strategic road
- Yemen Monitor — Houthi losses rise to 787 since July
- Al Jazeera — Yemeni forces claim repelling Houthi attacks in Taiz as fighting rages on