LowIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence27 September 2026, Sunday · 15:35 TRT (UTC+3)
Zelensky claims significant gains near Lyman as casualty figures go unverified
Zelensky said on 27 September that Operation Vivaldi on the Lyman front in Donetsk had achieved significant results, but gave no territorial details. According to Kyiv, Russia lost 10,660 troops in a week; the figure could not be independently verified.
According to Ukrainska Pravda at 15:35 on 27 September, Zelensky, citing the Commander-in-Chief's report, put weekly Russian losses at 10,660 killed and wounded. It was stated that the 3rd Corps had cleared 75 km² and recaptured 10 km² as of 15 September. Shandryholove and Derylove were reported taken on 20 September, with full control established in Drobysheve.
According to the Kyiv Post, about 125 km² in total was recaptured over the operation's 2 phases, and the Kyiv Post wrote that it could not independently verify the Russian casualty figures. The same report said Ukrainian military intelligence claimed Russia was preparing to mobilise 300,000 additional troops after the Duma elections; Moscow had previously denied any mobilisation plan.
Independent assessment partly matches. In its 26 September assessment, the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote that Russian military bloggers blamed the Ukrainian advance north of Lyman on a culture of lying in the army. ISW also recorded Ukrainian forces advancing east of Sloviansk on 25–26 September, but gave no confirmation of the 10,660 casualty figure.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Operation Vivaldi is producing limited but real gains north of Lyman, and ISW also records the advance. By contrast, the claims of 10,660 weekly losses and a 300,000-strong mobilisation come from one side only. Kyiv's reluctance to give details suggests the front line has not yet settled.
Likely effects
- Donbas frontPositiveWeeks
The gain of about 125 km² has weakened Russia's attempted pincer around Lyman and split the pressure towards Sloviansk.
- Russian manpowerNegative1–6 months
If the claim of a 300,000-strong mobilisation is confirmed, Russia's labour shortage and wage pressure will deepen; the claim cannot be verified at present.
- Negotiating leverageUncertain1–6 months
Battlefield gains give Kyiv room to take a firmer line on territory in diplomatic contacts before winter.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Limited advance continues55%
Ukraine keeps taking small villages north of Lyman, while Russia presses towards Sloviansk in the south.
Watch: Changes north of Lyman on ISW maps
- 2Front stabilises30%
Gains are consolidated, and neither side manages to open a major new offensive.
Watch: No announcements of settlements taken for 2 weeks
- 3Russian counter-offensive15%
Additional units are shifted to Lyman, and part of the recaptured ground is lost.
Watch: Russian Defence Ministry announcing settlements taken in the Lyman direction
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Area recaptured (Kyiv Post)▲ ~125 km²
- Weekly Russian losses (Kyiv claim)▲ 10,660
- Possible Russian mobilisation (claim)▼ 300,000