HighVI Energy Politics & Supply Security12 October 2026, Monday · 12:29 TRT (UTC+3)

Zelenskiy ties a halt on refinery strikes to Russia sparing the grid

Zelenskiy said on 12 October that Ukraine would stop striking Russian refineries only if Russia stopped hitting its power grid. Russia struck 6 energy facilities that day, injuring 33 people; the Kremlin made no comment on the energy ceasefire Trump had announced.

Location: KHARKIV

The Kyiv Independent reported on 12 October that Zelenskiy, noting that Ukraine has only one oil refinery left, said a ceasefire must cover the grid and not just oil. According to Türkiye Today, Zelenskiy said Ukraine had halted long-range strikes on Russian refineries that night, while Russia hit a gas production facility and a fuel station. He warned that if Russia refused, Ukraine would respond this winter.

According to the Kyiv Independent, Russia launched 121 Shahed-type drones on the night of 11–12 October, 76 of them jet-powered, and 89 were shot down. Thermal power plant No. 5 in Kharkiv was hit on 11 October. In Kyiv a high-voltage line was damaged, cutting mains water across much of the city. Zelenskiy said Russia had carried out more than 200 strikes on power generation and transmission facilities and 17 on gas and oil facilities over the past week.

Kremlin spokesman Peskov said on 12 October that contacts on an energy ceasefire were continuing and that Moscow would comment when it had something to say. Peskov also rejected the 60-day ceasefire Zelenskiy had proposed to allow elections, saying Moscow wants a peace agreement, not a ceasefire.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

Kyiv is not giving up its refinery card unilaterally, but under pressure from Washington it paused for one night and put the ball in Moscow's court. The Kremlin's silence and continuing grid strikes suggest that, for now, the ceasefire exists only in the US announcement. The most likely path is that an unmonitored, reciprocal interlude soon collapses and refinery strikes resume as winter approaches.

Likely effects

Russian diesel exportsUncertainWeeks
If the pause in refinery strikes holds, the diesel tranches agreed with Washington become physically feasible; if it ends, exports are disrupted again.
Ukraine's gridNegativeWeeks
More than 200 strikes a week are eroding transmission capacity before winter; water and heating outages will cut industrial output.
TürkiyeNegativeWeeks
Uncertainty over Russian diesel flows keeps product supply via the Black Sea and the Turkish Straits, and diesel prices in Türkiye, volatile.

Possibilities, ranked

1
Ceasefire stays on paper55%
The Kremlin gives no figures or dates, Russian grid strikes continue, and Ukraine resumes refinery strikes within 2 weeks.
Watch: A new Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian refinery and Ukrenergo outage notices
2
Partial reciprocal pause30%
Moscow quietly scales back grid strikes and Kyiv extends its refinery pause; a ceasefire works in practice without being declared.
Watch: Weekly strikes on energy facilities falling well below 200
3
Formal energy ceasefire15%
The Kremlin confirms the ceasefire and a monitoring mechanism is agreed.
Watch: A dated confirmation from Peskov or Putin

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

UA energy sites hit (12 Oct)▼ 6
Drones launched overnight▼ 121
Weekly strikes on the grid▼ 200+

Bottom line

Likely effects

Possibilities, ranked

Sources