
I Geo-Economics & ChokepointsAmericas
From Santiago, Latin America should shape the new order, not react to it
- Institution
- UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (CEPAL/ECLAC)
- Author
- Institutional publication
- Country · language
- Latin America and Caribbean · Spanish, English
- Affiliation
- UN intergovernmental commission
Summary
Santiago-based ECLAC presented its position paper, Managing Transformations in an Age of Disruption, at its 41st session, held in the Dominican Republic on 7–9 October 2026. Executive Secretary José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs introduced the document on 7 October. Its central claim is that the region's assets will not turn into development on their own in the new geopolitical and geo-economic setting. Those assets include natural resources, productive capacity and a market of more than 600 million people. ECLAC argues that most countries are caught in 3 traps: low growth and weak capacity to transform, high inequality with low social mobility, and weak institutions with ineffective governance.
The paper proposes 11 vital transformations and singles out 3 of them. The first is digital transformation and artificial intelligence to break out of low growth. The second is a new phase of regional integration, and the third a sound fiscal framework that serves development. According to ECLAC's statement of 6 October, this calls for new institutional capacities such as geopolitical foresight, economic diplomacy and coordination between the public and private sectors. A separate geopolitical report from the commission identifies 8 global disruptions that are reshaping the region's markets, value chains and assets.
More than 35 delegations attended, and on 9 October the session adopted the proposals as a package of resolutions. The 42nd session will take place in Panama in 2028. Salazar-Xirinachs closed with 5 messages. The first was that the region must not merely react to change but help write the rules of the new order. In his view, a new phase of integration should open, spanning infrastructure, trade, finance and climate. Landlocked and small states, he suggested, can overcome their problem of scale on this agenda to 2028 only through integration.
Blind spot
The paper offers regional integration as the remedy. Yet it does not put numbers on the region's dual structure, with Mexico tied to US supply chains and South America dependent on commodity sales to China. Nor does it quantify how US tariffs are pushing these two blocs in different directions. The low share of intra-regional trade, and why past integration efforts stalled, also go unmeasured. The proposals lean on institutional capacity but give no implementation cost or timetable.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
ECLAC's reading suggests Latin America should seek bargaining power by building regional scale rather than picking a side in the US–China rivalry. A market of more than 600 million people underpins the thesis, but the paper offers no concrete timetable or financing to unify it. The most likely path is that the resolutions trail behind countries' bilateral trade deals, with integration advancing in small, sector-by-sector steps.
Likely effects
- Regional tradePositive6 months+
If the proposals on trade facilitation and services trade are implemented, the 600-million-strong market gains a larger buffer against external shocks.
- Investment policyUncertain1–6 months
The priority given to digital and artificial intelligence among the 11 transformations could steer regional governments towards incentives for data centres and infrastructure.
- External bargainingUncertain1–6 months
The 8 disruptions identified strengthen the search for a common stance in bilateral talks with the United States and China, though nothing in them is binding.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Limited implementation60%
The resolutions enter ECLAC's work programme, but countries keep pursuing bilateral trade and tariff bargains on their own.
Watch: New trade facilitation decisions by regional trade blocs during 2027
- 2Sectoral integration steps30%
Multilateral projects get under way in narrow fields such as infrastructure and payment systems.
Watch: An announcement of joint infrastructure financing by regional development banks
- 3The region fragments further10%
US tariffs and election calendars push countries into separate blocs, and the proposals are shelved.
Watch: A country in the region putting a special tariff deal with the United States ahead of its integration commitments
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Original publication: cepal.org · 7 October 2026
This page summarises the institution's view and does not reflect the view of Talay Insight. No direct quotation is used.