From the UAE, clean energy pledges do not make Gulf AI data centres clean

Summary

An analysis dated 5 October 2026 by Habiba Diaaeldin of the UAE-based Al Habtoor Research Centre argues that the AI data centre boom and the green transition are not naturally aligned. The core argument is one of timing. A data centre goes up in 1–2 years, while transmission lines and clean generation take far longer, so unmet demand is filled by gas. Citing IEA data, the author notes that data centres consumed 415 TWh in 2024, about 1.5% of global demand. In the base case that rises to 945 TWh by 2030. To 2035, renewables add 450 TWh while gas grows by 175 TWh.

The Gulf section of the analysis separates 3 countries. The UAE has the strongest starting point, with a mix of nuclear, solar and gas. It plans 21.7 GW of new capacity by 2030, of which 12 GW is solar. In the author's view, the Barakah nuclear plant already serves existing users as of 2026, so linking it to a new campus does not automatically count as new clean supply. Citing Wood Mackenzie, she notes that as of 2026 UAE rules bar data centres from signing corporate power purchase agreements. As a result, the large cloud companies cannot use their demand to finance new clean capacity.

In Saudi Arabia, renewable capacity doubled to about 12.3 GW in 2025, yet it met less than 1% of generation in 2024. At the start of 2025, roughly two-thirds of the capacity under construction was gas-fired. In Qatar, data centres alone could draw 1.5–2 GW. Facilities in the Middle East have an average power usage effectiveness of 1.79, behind the global figure of 1.56. The author makes 3 recommendations. Grid connection permits should be tied to additional clean supply. Electricity, water and carbon intensity should be disclosed. Capacity should be phased according to clean generation delivered, not announcement dates.