HighVI Energy Politics & Supply Security9 October 2026, Friday

EU gas storage at lowest since 2011 as winter demand cuts loom

US-based IEEFA said on 9 October that EU gas storage was 72.4% full on 3 October, the lowest level for the time of year since 2011. It calculated that winter demand may need to fall by 7% year on year, or 14 billion cubic metres.

Location: BRUSSELS

According to the IEEFA report cited by Euronews, storage will be able to deliver 7.3 bcm less gas over November–March than last winter. Once the full ban on Russian LNG takes effect on 1 January 2027, the EU may need to burn 14 bcm less gas than last winter. ENTSOG, the European gas network operators' association, reached a similar figure. According to OilPrice, its 8 October report said demand would need to be cut by about 7% in a cold winter, even with LNG supply at its best. Euronews also cited grid operators' warnings that the gap could reach 15% in a harsh winter; the two estimates rest on different scenarios.

IEEFA puts the cost of closing the gap with extra imports rather than demand cuts at about 3 billion euros, 12% more than the same volume cost last year. The Dutch TTF contract hit 84.5 euros per megawatt-hour in mid-September, its highest since 2022, topped 80 euros on 8 October and was around 78 euros on the morning of 9 October. The Iran war that began on 28 February has disrupted shipping through Hormuz, which carries about a fifth of global LNG trade.

The constraint lies more in withdrawal rates than in volume. According to IEEFA, storage will not run dry, but it releases gas more slowly as it empties, which could open a gap during a late-winter cold snap. Summer contracts at times priced above winter contracts this year, squeezing storage margins, and next summer will require a larger and costlier refill. Germany has asked state-owned SEFE to store 8 TWh of gas by 15 December, and Spain has raised stocks at its LNG terminals by more than 25%.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

Storage will not run dry, but at 72.4% full it limits withdrawal rates in a late-winter cold snap. IEEFA and ENTSOG arrive at the same 7% demand cut, and closing the gap with imports would cost 3 billion euros. The likeliest path is price-driven demand destruction in industry and an expensive refill season next summer.

Likely effects

European industryNegative1–6 months
Most of the 14 bcm gap will be rationed by price; high TTF shows up first as output cuts in energy-intensive industry.
2027 refill costNegative6 months+
Emptier storage requires a larger refill next summer; summer contracts pricing above winter squeeze storage margins.
Turkish LNG purchasesNegativeWeeks
Europe's extra LNG needs mean Türkiye's winter spot cargoes compete in the same supply pool.

Possibilities, ranked

1
Mild winter, price-led rationing55%
Winter is normal, demand falls about 7% on price, and storage covers the end of winter, albeit at high prices.
Watch: EU storage levels at end-November and the €80/MWh mark for TTF
2
Late cold snap opens a gap30%
In a February–March cold spell, storage cannot deliver gas fast enough, bringing emergency demand curbs and a price spike.
Watch: ENTSOG's weekly supply-demand report and the February TTF price
3
LNG flows ease15%
LNG transits through Hormuz normalise and extra cargoes close the gap without demand cuts.
Watch: The number of Qatari LNG tankers transiting Hormuz

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

Storage fill▼ 72.4%
TTF gas▼ ~€78/MWh
Demand cut required▼ −7%

Historical context