Investors keep credit risk but shun duration and currency

Noise: debate over whether the 22 October MPC cuts by 100 or 200 basis points, with Goldman Sachs expecting a hold. Signal: in the week to 2 October, foreigners pulled $484.7 million out of lira government bonds while putting $928.5 million into the Treasury's dollar eurobonds. Net reserves excluding swaps fell $2 billion the same week, to $37.9 billion. The US shows the same preference: at the 8 October 30-year auction, the largely foreign indirect bidder share fell to 72.3% from 80.3% at the 10-year, and dealers were left with 6.8%.

• Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood

  The CBRT's net reserves excluding swaps fell to $37.9 billion in the week to 2 October, as foreigners pulled $484.7 million out of lira bonds and put $928.5 million into eurobonds. On 8 October Şimşek said 43,000 investors in 17 funds had been paid; the process continues for the rest of the 131 funds in liquidation. The factoring-leasing index fell 5.93% on 8 October and has been down for 17 sessions.

• Middle East and North Africa

  Only 7 commodity vessels transited Hormuz on 6 October, and a tanker burned 40 km off Fujairah on 8 October. The same day the US blacklisted 17 tankers from Iran's shadow fleet; a Treasury official said at most 20 million barrels remain on unsanctioned tankers. The Saudi coalition said it had struck 82 Houthi targets and intercepted 2 missiles fired at Riyadh.

• Europe

  The ECB account showed that the 9–10 September hike was unanimous and came with no pre-commitment; 64 of 73 economists in a Reuters poll expect a December hike. German exports fell 0.8% in August, with exports to the US down 6.3%. In Istanbul, BoE Governor Bailey called on governments for credible budgets; the UK budget is due on 28 October.

• Eurasia

  A Russian strike on the evening of 8 October hit an energy facility supplying Kyiv; the metro stopped and water pressure dropped in 4 districts. A guided bomb that hit 2 buses in Kramatorsk killed 33. Ukraine hit Omsk, which accounts for about 10% of Russian refining, for the second time, and Russia's Defence Ministry said it downed 399 drones.

• Asia-Pacific

  The IDCF Cloud attack hit 495 companies and local governments, and recovery of data in 4 zones was left to customers' own backups. TSMC's September revenue rose 54.6% year on year to NT$511.86 billion. The Philippine military counted 101 Chinese vessels in waters it claims in September, up from 56 in August.

• South Asia

  The rupee slid to 96.88 on 8 October despite the RBI's 25 basis point hike on 7 October; reserves fell from $785.71 billion on 4 September to $734.6 billion on 2 October. The IMF reached a staff-level agreement with Pakistan on a $1.2 billion tranche and wants fuel subsidies removed quickly; inflation was 10.3% in September.

• Sub-Saharan Africa

  Kenya's central bank held its rate at 8.75% on 7 October, as inflation rose to 6.8% in September and core to 4%. FMDA expects Nigeria's current account surplus to rise to $8.69 billion in the third quarter, with reserves at $54.98 billion. In Congo, illegal miners are threatening the water supply of the 100 MW Nzilo power station.

• Americas

  The US 30-year auction cleared at 5.618% on 8 October, with the bid-to-cover down to 2.54. In Istanbul, Waller said he expects further hikes but that they need not come at consecutive meetings; odds of an October hike are 18–20%. Mexican inflation rose to 3.45% in September, and Datafolha gave Flávio Bolsonaro 52% in Brazil's run-off.

1. 1

   Seen from Beijing, the Greenland deal is an investment gate more than a defence pact

   Nong Hong, executive director, Institute for China-America Studies, China-US Focus · 29 September 2026state media

   Nong Hong argues that the 22 September US–Denmark–Greenland agreement expands the Pituffik base and opens 2 new defence areas at Narsarsuaq and Mestersvig. The agreement restricts investors from outside NATO and the EU in sensitive sectors. The author contends this will deter Chinese companies without any formal rejection. While the West reads the deal as Arctic security, the piece shows 2 clauses acting as a de facto screen on critical mineral and infrastructure investment.

   Note: The platform belongs to the Beijing-linked CUSEF foundation; the agreement's clauses are as relayed by the author and were not checked against the official text.

   chinausfocus.com
2. 2

   Seen from Beijing, competition cannot veto cooperation

   Sun Chenghao, CISS, Tsinghua University, China-US Focus · 30 September 2026state media

   Sun Chenghao writes that Xi–Trump talks have reached a second round in 6 months and that the trade truce has been extended by 2 months to 10 January. In the author's view, AI cooperation could begin with the 2 countries sharing serious security incidents. While the West reads the relationship through export controls and the 10 November suspension date, the piece shows Beijing wants to use the truce to open a technical cooperation channel before 10 January.

   Note: The extension of the truce to 10 January comes only from this piece and was not independently confirmed. The platform belongs to the Beijing-linked CUSEF foundation.

   chinausfocus.com
3. 3

   Seen from Addis Ababa, Somalia is becoming a bargaining table for outside powers

   Abdul Mohammed and Samira Gaid, Amani Africa · 5 October 2026

   The authors say Mogadishu cancelled agreements with the UAE covering 3 ports in January, but Somaliland, Puntland and Jubaland maintain UAE ties. Türkiye is cited as the largest single external security partner, through training, permanent facilities and energy exploration. As Bab el-Mandeb, the strait that carries about 12% of world trade by volume, merges with Hormuz into a single theatre of war, the value of the Red Sea's western shore rises. While the West reads Somalia as counter-terrorism, the piece shows the federal structure turning into a bargain over bases and recognition.

   Note: The claim that the Houthis reached Mayun island on 12 September was not independently confirmed; the piece does not mention Ethiopia or Eritrea.

   amaniafrica-et.org
4. 4

   The African Union treats information disorder as a security threat

   Amani Africa · 8 October 2026

   An Amani Africa note says the 1372nd session of the AU Peace and Security Council took up information disorder as a security threat. The note cites AI-generated content in Nigeria's 2023 elections, the internet shutdown in Tanzania and al-Shabaab's online narratives. The West reads disinformation in Africa through the lens of foreign interference. By putting the issue on its peace and security agenda, the 55-member union could open the way to a framework that leaves shutdown and content-control powers with states.

   Note: Amani's own pages give conflicting dates for the session, 8 and 9 October.

   amaniafrica-et.org
5. 5

   Seen from San José, oil is the rationale for intervention in Venezuela

   Ottón Solís, former Costa Rican planning minister, Latinoamérica21 · 4 October 2026

   Solís argues that oil interests lie behind the official justifications for military interventions, and relays that after Maduro's capture on 3 January 2026 Trump said US troops would stay because of oil. In the author's account, the deal announced on 28 August gives the US majority control over Venezuela's proven reserves of more than 65 billion barrels. While the West reads the deal as energy supply, in Latin America it reads as continuity of resource control stretching back to the 1950s.

   Note: The 65 billion barrel figure and the below-market price claim are only the author's account; the text of the deal was not seen.

   latinoamerica21.com

Scenario percentages are calibrated judgements, not measurements. State media sources are flagged separately. This issue is for information only and is not investment advice. Production process and rules: methodology · source universe · Track record