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HighIV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt10 November 2026, Tuesday · 16:30 TRT (UTC+3)

US October inflation beats forecasts, and the same evening's auction disappoints

US consumer prices rose 0.4% month on month in October, data showed on 10 November, against a consensus of 0.3%; core inflation also beat expectations at 0.3%. That evening the Treasury sold 42 billion dollars of 10-year notes at 5.02%, with the auction tailing by 1 basis point.

Location: WASHINGTON

According to CNBC, the headline increase topped the Dow Jones consensus of 0.3%, after 0.6% in September. Energy rose just 0.7% in October, following a 5.2% jump in September, Yahoo Finance reported. Food rose 0.5% and shelter 0.3%. Core inflation came in at 0.3% for a third straight month, according to Investing.com; the BLS published no annual rate because October 2025 data were never collected.

investingLive reported a when-issued yield of 5.01% before the sale; the 5.02% stop produced a 1 basis point tail. The bid-to-cover ratio of 2.46 fell short of the 2.60 average. Indirect bidders, a proxy for foreign demand, took 61.2% against an average of 76.65%. Direct bidders' share nearly doubled the average at 29.0%, leaving 9.8% to primary dealers.

FedWatch data cited by CNBC put the probability of a 25 basis point hike in December at 88%, up from 77% a week earlier, while the odds of 50 basis points rose from zero to 11%. Fed Governor Waller said in London the same day that 50 basis points should be considered if the data run hot, Yahoo Finance reported. Reported closing levels for the 10-year yield vary by source between 4.93% and 4.98%.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

The October print all but locks in a December Fed hike; the debate is now between 25 and 50 basis points. With energy slowing to 0.7% while the headline held at 0.4%, pressure has migrated to food and shelter. The drop in the foreign share to 61.2% at the evening auction suggests the binding constraint at the back end is the buyer base rather than the rate decision.

Likely effects

  • US rate pathNegativeWeeks

    FedWatch puts the odds of a 25 basis point hike at 88%, and a 50 basis point move is now on the table at 11%.

  • Extended-maturity yieldsNegativeWeeks

    If demand also stays weak at the 30-year auction on 12 November, the fall in the indirect share to 61.2% could push the term premium higher without any new data.

  • Türkiye external financingNegative1–6 months

    A 10-year US yield holding near 5% keeps dollar borrowing costs high for emerging-market treasuries, Türkiye included.

Possibilities, ranked

  1. 1
    25 basis points in December65%

    The Fed raises rates to 4.00–4.25% on 9 December and keeps the door open to further hikes.

    Watch: US producer prices on 13 November and FedWatch probabilities

  2. 2
    50 basis points in December20%

    Producer prices also run hot and the committee takes a larger step to protect its credibility.

    Watch: FedWatch odds of 50 basis points exceeding 25%

  3. 3
    The Fed waits15%

    A tech sell-off and jobless claims bring growth worries to the fore and the committee defers its decision.

    Watch: Weekly jobless claims and the 30-year auction result

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

Historical context

US 10-year yield, last 6 months

4.274.554.845.125.4005/0511/0621/0725/0801/1009/1117 September 2026 — Fed dot plot median for 2026 rises to 4.00-4.25% while the 10-year yield eases from 5.04% to 4.94%121 September 2026 — The Fed's Goolsbee: if inflation is coming from demand, the rate response will be sharper and front-loaded223 September 2026 — US Treasury sells $70 billion of 5-year notes at 5.033%; after hot PMIs the 10-year yield hits 5.10%, its highest since 2007324 September 2026 — India's Sensex falls 1,247.71 points to 73,580; rupee presses against the 96 threshold as Brent tops $102 and the US 10-year yield exceeds 5.11%424 September 2026 — US Treasury sells 44 billion dollars of 7-year notes at 5.085%: highest yield since April 1993 as indirect demand falls to 57.2%524 September 2026 — No joint statement at Xi–Trump summit: tariff truce extended by just 2 months from 10 November to 10 January, no new decisions on chips or rare earths625 September 2026 — Michigan consumer sentiment at a 4-month low of 48.1, 1-year inflation expectations jump to 4.6%; US 30-year yield rises to 5.50%727 September 2026 — Bessent urges Fed flexibility on rates, citing AI productivity828 September 2026 — US ten-year Treasury yield climbs to a 19-year high929 September 2026 — US long-dated yield holds above 5.5% despite Treasury buybacks1030 September 2026 — Softer US inflation erodes the odds of an October rate rise111 October 2026 — US Treasuries pull back from their peak as two-year yield drops 10 basis points122 October 2026 — Logan seeks 50 more basis points while most of the Fed waits135 October 2026 — Nasdaq hits record as Treasury yields touch 24-year high146 October 2026 — Fed's Schmid and Daly keep the door open to hikes despite high yields157 October 2026 — Fed minutes point to one more rate rise before year-end167 October 2026 — US ten-year auction clears at the highest yield in a quarter-century1714 October 2026 — US inflation climbs to 3.7%, putting an October hike back in play1815 October 2026 — US producer inflation jumps to 6.3%, yet Treasury yields fall1916 October 2026 — Warsh gives no rate signal in Bangkok and October hike odds fall2019 October 2026 — Barclays now expects Fed hikes in both December and January2120 October 2026 — US pending home sales sink to their lowest since 20012220 October 2026 — Thirty-year Treasury yield slips below the 20-year point2322 October 2026 — US 10-year yield slips below 5% as tech sell-off deepens2423 October 2026 — US firms raise selling prices at fastest pace since 20222524 October 2026 — Fed expected to hold on Wednesday as markets price a December hike2627 October 2026 — Domestic buyers displaced foreigners at the US two-year auction2730 October 2026 — Logan calls for at least two more hikes as December odds slip to 76%282 November 2026 — US manufacturing beats forecasts as input prices stay high293 November 2026 — Treasury yields climb on election day ahead of the refunding statement304 November 2026 — US Treasury moves seven-year notes from monthly to quarterly new issues316 November 2026 — US consumers' year-ahead inflation expectations ease to 4.3%32
  1. 117/09 · Fed dot plot median for 2026 rises to 4.00-4.25% while the 10-year yield eases from 5.04% to 4.94%
  2. 221/09 · The Fed's Goolsbee: if inflation is coming from demand, the rate response will be sharper and front-loaded
  3. 323/09 · US Treasury sells $70 billion of 5-year notes at 5.033%; after hot PMIs the 10-year yield hits 5.10%, its highest since 2007
  4. 424/09 · India's Sensex falls 1,247.71 points to 73,580; rupee presses against the 96 threshold as Brent tops $102 and the US 10-year yield exceeds 5.11%
  5. 524/09 · US Treasury sells 44 billion dollars of 7-year notes at 5.085%: highest yield since April 1993 as indirect demand falls to 57.2%
  6. 624/09 · No joint statement at Xi–Trump summit: tariff truce extended by just 2 months from 10 November to 10 January, no new decisions on chips or rare earths
  7. 725/09 · Michigan consumer sentiment at a 4-month low of 48.1, 1-year inflation expectations jump to 4.6%; US 30-year yield rises to 5.50%
  8. 827/09 · Bessent urges Fed flexibility on rates, citing AI productivity
  9. 928/09 · US ten-year Treasury yield climbs to a 19-year high
  10. 1029/09 · US long-dated yield holds above 5.5% despite Treasury buybacks
  11. 1130/09 · Softer US inflation erodes the odds of an October rate rise
  12. 1201/10 · US Treasuries pull back from their peak as two-year yield drops 10 basis points
  13. 1302/10 · Logan seeks 50 more basis points while most of the Fed waits
  14. 1405/10 · Nasdaq hits record as Treasury yields touch 24-year high
  15. 1506/10 · Fed's Schmid and Daly keep the door open to hikes despite high yields
  16. 1607/10 · Fed minutes point to one more rate rise before year-end
  17. 1707/10 · US ten-year auction clears at the highest yield in a quarter-century
  18. 1814/10 · US inflation climbs to 3.7%, putting an October hike back in play
  19. 1915/10 · US producer inflation jumps to 6.3%, yet Treasury yields fall
  20. 2016/10 · Warsh gives no rate signal in Bangkok and October hike odds fall
  21. 2119/10 · Barclays now expects Fed hikes in both December and January
  22. 2220/10 · US pending home sales sink to their lowest since 2001
  23. 2320/10 · Thirty-year Treasury yield slips below the 20-year point
  24. 2422/10 · US 10-year yield slips below 5% as tech sell-off deepens
  25. 2523/10 · US firms raise selling prices at fastest pace since 2022
  26. 2624/10 · Fed expected to hold on Wednesday as markets price a December hike
  27. 2727/10 · Domestic buyers displaced foreigners at the US two-year auction
  28. 2830/10 · Logan calls for at least two more hikes as December odds slip to 76%
  29. 2902/11 · US manufacturing beats forecasts as input prices stay high
  30. 3003/11 · Treasury yields climb on election day ahead of the refunding statement
  31. 3104/11 · US Treasury moves seven-year notes from monthly to quarterly new issues
  32. 3206/11 · US consumers' year-ahead inflation expectations ease to 4.3%

Sources

  1. CNBC — Market spooked because now the Fed may need a supersized hike in December
  2. investingLive — U.S. Treasury sells $42 billion of 10 year notes at a high yield of 5.02%
  3. Yahoo Finance — Stock market today, 10 November: hot CPI fuels rate hike odds
  4. Investing.com — October CPI sparks December Fed hike fears as yields surge and tech stocks slide
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