US and Iran strike tankers in the largest wave of attacks on shipping since the war began

Likely effects

• Oil pricesNegativeWeeks

  Brent exceeding 100 dollars for the first time since July shows that supply losses and shipping risk are being priced in; while attacks continue, upward pressure and high volatility in oil prices persist.

• Hormuz maritime tradeNegative1–6 months

  Targeting tankers raises war-risk insurance premiums and freight costs and leads shipowners to avoid the strait; Gulf exporters and Asian buyers are the most affected.

• Türkiye current accountNegative1–6 months

  For energy importer Türkiye, high oil prices enlarge the energy bill and the current-account deficit, feed inflation through fuel prices and narrow the CBRT's room for easing.

• Regional securityNegativeWeeks

  Iran firing missiles at an air base in Jordan raises the risk of the conflict spreading beyond Gulf waters to neighbouring countries that host US forces.

Possibilities, ranked

1. 1
   Maritime war with intermittent attacks55%

   The parties continue intermittent attacks on tankers and bases; transits stay low and Brent remains high and volatile, but the conflict does not become an uncontrolled regional war.

   Watch: Daily Hormuz transit counts and changes in war-risk insurance premiums

2. 2
   Escalation to Gulf infrastructure30%

   Attacks widen to ports, terminals or energy facilities; flows through the strait fall further and oil prices spike sharply.

   Watch: Attacks on Gulf ports or energy facilities and additional US military deployments

3. 3
   De-escalation through negotiation15%

   Attacks on shipping are paused through mediators; transits recover gradually, but the risk of violations stays high in the first weeks.

   Watch: Statements from the parties suspending maritime attacks and consecutive rises in transit counts

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.