Ship-tracking data at Hormuz contradict the US Energy Secretary's claim of 10 million barrels a day in flows

Strait of Hormuz, Qeshm Island and the Musandam Peninsula seen from the International Space Station — Strait of Hormuz and Qeshm Island, seen from the ISS (June 2016)Photo: NASA Johnson Space Center (ISS Expedition 47) · Public domain · Source

Location: HORMUZ

According to Al Jazeera, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on 13 September that an average of 10 million barrels of oil a day had passed through Hormuz over the past week, two thirds or more of previous flows. According to the same report, Reuters tracking data show a total of 14 ships (4 outbound, 10 inbound) on 14 September and a 10-day average of 14 transits a day. straits.live, which draws on PortWatch data, records 8 transits for 13 September.

gCaptain also reports that industry data do not match the administration's statements. The normal pre-war number of transits ranges from 85 to 138 a day, depending on the source. Military-escorted convoys not showing up in commercial tracking systems could explain part of the gap, but this could not be independently verified. Price behaviour is also consistent with a low-flow scenario: Brent futures stood at 109 dollars on 15 September, while the spot price on FRED was above 130 dollars.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

The 8–14 daily transits shown by independent tracking data are far below the pre-war range of 85–138 and are inconsistent with the US Energy Secretary's claim that flows have returned to two-thirds. Escorted convoys not appearing on tracking systems could explain part of the gap, but this is unverified; spot Brent above 130 dollars is also consistent with a low-flow scenario. The most likely assessment is that actual flows are markedly lower than the official narrative and the supply squeeze persists.

Likely effects

Oil pricesNegativeWeeks
The contradiction between official statements and vessel data leads markets to assume low Hormuz flows; the wide gap between spot and futures Brent indicates tight physical supply and continued upward price pressure.
Türkiye energy bill and inflationNegative1–6 months
Hormuz flows remaining low in practice enlarge the oil import bill and current account deficit of import-dependent Türkiye, and push inflation expectations up through fuel prices.
Data reliabilityUncertainWeeks
The large divergence between sources makes it harder for decision-makers and markets to read the situation in Hormuz; each new statement or dataset can increase price volatility.

Possibilities, ranked

1
Low flows persist70%
Independent data continues to show low daily transits; the gap between official narrative and data does not close and the physical supply squeeze continues.
Watch: Daily transits staying below 14 in straits.live and Reuters tracking data and spot Brent holding above 130 dollars
2
Escorted flows verified15%
Independent sources confirm the untracked volume of military-escorted convoys; actual flows prove close to the official figure and the gap between spot and futures prices narrows.
Watch: Independent confirmation of escorted convoy volumes from tanker-tracking firms or port data and a narrowing spot–futures Brent gap
3
Flows fall further15%
As attacks in the region increase, transits decline again; physical supply tightens further and prices rise sharply.
Watch: Daily transits falling below 8 and new reports of tanker attacks in the area

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

Hormuz transits▼ 14 ships
Brent spot▲ above $130

Historical context