MediumVI Energy Politics & Supply Security8 October 2026, Thursday
ADNOC prices November Murban at an $11 premium to Dubai
ADNOC set Murban's official selling price for November at an $11 a barrel premium to Dubai quotes on 8 October, Reuters reported. Murban's market premium climbed back above $11 the same day, as freight costs push US crude out of Asia.
According to the Reuters report carried by Dawn, the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company priced Murban for November loading at $11 over Dubai. Oilprice reported on 9 October that Murban's premium to Dubai again topped $11 on Thursday. Asian refiners are switching to Murban and Argentina's Medanito crude after freight on cargoes from the US Gulf rose to about $38 a barrel.
Reuters data cited by the Daily Caller show Japan's Cosmo Oil provisionally chartered a supertanker for $81 million for a US cargo loading on 19–21 November. Bids of $76–77 million from SK Energy and Trafigura came to nothing. EIA data put US crude exports at about 4.8 million barrels a day in the week to 2 October. The Dallas Fed puts the figure at 4 million in February and 5.2 million in May.
There is more than one premium. Energies Media reported on 13 September that Murban delivered to East Asia was then trading more than $30 above Dubai. The $11 figure is the official selling price, while the $30 is the delivered spot price. On 5 October Aramco cut its November price to Asia to the deepest discount in six years; in the same week neighbouring Abu Dhabi raised its premium.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
With freight pricing US crude out of Asia, barrels from Gulf outlets that bypass Hormuz are gaining value, and Abu Dhabi is writing that into its price. Aramco's discount in the same week shows the scarcity lies not in barrels as such but in barrels that can actually be delivered. The likeliest path is a Murban premium holding above $10 while freight stays high.
Likely effects
- Asian refining marginsNegativeWeeks
Japanese, Korean and Indian refiners pay both a high premium and high freight, adding pressure on product prices.
- US crude exportsUncertain1–6 months
If the Asian route closes, US crude heads to Europe and price spreads across the Atlantic narrow.
- TürkiyePositive1–6 months
If US crude is redirected to Europe, Mediterranean buyers may find alternative barrels easier to source.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Premium stays high55%
Unless freight falls, the Murban premium stays above $10 and Asia keeps favouring Gulf barrels.
Watch: ADNOC's official selling price for December
- 2Premium widens further25%
If attacks around Fujairah continue, Murban's delivered spot premium again tops $20.
Watch: A new tanker hit at Fujairah or in the Gulf of Oman
- 3Premium narrows20%
As VLCC rates ease, US crude returns to Asia and the Murban premium falls.
Watch: US Gulf–Asia VLCC charter rates falling below $50 million
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Murban November OSP▲ Dubai +$11
- US–Asia freight▼ ~$38/bbl
Sources
- Dawn (Reuters) — UAE's ADNOC raises Murban crude oil price to $11 over Dubai quotes
- Oilprice — Asian Refiners Ditch U.S. Oil as Supertanker Rates Hit $82 Million
- Daily Caller — Record $80,000,000 Shipping Bills Are Pricing American Oil Out Of Asia
- Energies Media — Indian and Chinese refiners accelerate Middle Eastern crude purchases