MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints9 October 2026, Friday
Ankara awaits Moscow and Kyiv sign-off on Black Sea shipping moratorium
Aydınlık reported on 9 October that a draft moratorium banning attacks on civilian ships, prepared by Türkiye's foreign ministry, has been sent to Russia and Ukraine and awaits both sides' initials. By the paper's count, 73 merchant ships have been attacked in the Black Sea since January, 52 of them linked to Türkiye.
The draft is modelled on the 2022 Grain Deal but is not limited to grain ships. According to Aydınlık's sources, Ankara is not insisting on a three-way signing ceremony; signatures at ambassador level, or separate signatures sent to Ankara, are also options. The figures of 73 attacks and 52 Türkiye-linked ships are based on information obtained by the paper and could not be independently verified.
Diplomatic contacts have intensified. Anadolu Agency reported on 7 October that President Erdoğan spoke to Putin by phone and stressed the importance of work on navigation safety in the Black Sea. According to Aydınlık, Erdoğan also raised the issue with Zelenskiy on 23 September. There has been no official statement on Moscow's response to the draft.
The pressure is coming from the water. Diken reported on 8 October that Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev said all ten crew members of the Alfa Watan had been killed. The Turkish-owned, Togo-flagged ship was hit about 112 km off Byala. Radev said aerial and naval drones were used in the attack but did not name the perpetrator. The report says three ships were hit and sunk in three days.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Ankara is trying to bring the Black Sea back to the table as it did with the Grain Deal, but the draft depends on both sides initialling it and Moscow has not replied. With 52 Türkiye-linked ships hit, Turkish shipowners bear the heaviest cost of the risk. Until a moratorium is signed, insurance premiums and freight rates will stay high. Even if it is signed, the draft shows no mechanism to monitor compliance.
Likely effects
- Turkish shippingNegative1–6 months
With 52 of the 73 ships hit since January linked to Türkiye, war risk premiums and the cost of hiring crews fall directly on Turkish shipowners.
- Grain and commodity tradeNegativeWeeks
The sinking of three ships in three days, including the Alfa Watan bound for Romania's Sulina port, narrows insurance cover for trade out of the Danube.
- Turkish diplomacyPositive1–6 months
Erdoğan's call with Putin on 7 October keeps Ankara's mediating role alive; if the initials come, Türkiye returns to its 2022 position.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Draft stalls55%
The parties delay initialling; attacks continue, if less often, and Ankara keeps the channel open.
Watch: An official response to the draft from the Kremlin or Kyiv
- 2Partial agreement30%
One or both parties join the draft through separate signatures, and attacks on merchant ships fall markedly.
Watch: Reports of an ambassador-level signature or one delivered to Ankara
- 3Escalation15%
Attacks move closer to Turkish territorial waters and Türkiye turns to direct measures such as naval escorts.
Watch: The first attack in Turkish territorial waters or at the entrance to the Bosphorus
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Merchant ships hit (since January)▼ 73
- Türkiye-linked ships▼ 52
- Alfa Watan crew killed▼ 10