MediumVI Energy Politics & Supply Security17 October 2026, Saturday
In Moscow, Bayraktar ties the US–Russia diesel deal to Turkish supply security
Energy Minister Bayraktar told Russian Energy Week that the diesel deal between the US and Russia matters for Türkiye's security of supply. He met Gazprom chairman Miller and said he expected the first of Akkuyu's 4 reactors to generate power within a few months.
In an AA interview carried by Türkiye Today, Bayraktar described Russia as a reliable supplier of oil, gas and petroleum products and stressed that Türkiye is a major importer of Russian diesel. He marked the 40th year of gas cooperation with Russia. Since the first agreement on 14 February 1986, Russia has delivered more than 600 billion cubic metres of gas. According to CNN Türk, Bayraktar discussed gas cooperation with Gazprom chairman Miller in Moscow; no volumes or prices were announced after the meeting.
On the nuclear side, the timetable is tightening. Bayraktar said the aim was to commission the first of Akkuyu's 4 reactors within the next few months. According to CNN Türk, 322 of the 526 students sent to Russia to study nuclear engineering have completed their training and started work at Akkuyu. The planned plants at Sinop and in Thrace were also on the agenda. The minister pointed to extended-term LNG contracts with the US as an alternative should pipeline flows be disrupted.
Domestic output only partly offsets this picture. According to Bayraktar, annual production of Black Sea gas is approaching 7.5 billion cubic metres, with a target of quadrupling it by 2028; news of a fresh discovery at Gabar is expected. Diesel dependence persists. EPDK data cited by Dünya show diesel imports rose 9.03% year on year in August to 1,166,792 tonnes. Russia ranked first in oil and product imports with 1,257,721 tonnes.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
In the week Washington eased sanctions pressure on Russia, Ankara is framing its presence in Moscow in the language of supply security. The near-term vulnerability lies in diesel, not gas: imported diesel rose 9.03% in August, and the continuity of Russian product now hinges on a US–Russia deal. Akkuyu and Black Sea gas will build a buffer over the medium term, but they will not shrink this winter's diesel bill.
Likely effects
- Diesel supplyNegativeWeeks
Russian diesel flows now depend on the US–Russia deal and the state of Russian refineries rather than on Ankara; Bayraktar made this an explicit supply-security issue.
- Power generationPositive1–6 months
If Akkuyu's first unit comes online within a few months, the need for gas-fired generation from imported gas will fall.
- Domestic productionPositive6 months+
Black Sea gas is nearing 7.5 bcm, with a target of quadrupling by 2028; this cuts pipeline gas imports but leaves the diesel deficit untouched.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Russian diesel keeps flowing, if limited55%
The US–Russia deal holds, and Türkiye keeps topping up Russian product with US and Indian cargoes.
Watch: Country breakdown of diesel imports in EPDK's September petroleum market report
- 2Akkuyu timetable slips30%
Commissioning of the first unit slides to 2027, and gas keeps a high share of winter power generation.
Watch: Announcement that Akkuyu's first unit has been connected to the grid
- 3New volume deal with Gazprom15%
The Miller meeting turns into a concrete volume or infrastructure deal, and Ankara raises Russia's share of pipeline gas.
Watch: A new gas contract announced between Gazprom and Türkiye
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- August diesel imports▼ +9.03%
- Black Sea gas▲ 7.5 bcm/year
- Akkuyu first unit▲ a few months