MediumIV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt9 October 2026, Friday · 00:43 TRT (UTC+3)
First Datafolha runoff poll puts Flávio Bolsonaro ahead in Brazil
Datafolha's first runoff poll, released on the evening of 8 October, gives Flávio Bolsonaro 52% of valid votes against 48% for Lula. The gap sits at the edge of the 2-point margin of error; ahead of the 25 October runoff, the real stands at 5.02 to the dollar.
Metrópoles and CNN Brasil report that the poll, conducted for Folha and TV Globo, surveyed 2,520 voters on 6–7 October, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 points. In total vote intention Flávio has 49% and Lula 45%; 5% would cast blank or spoiled ballots and 1% are undecided. It is Datafolha's first reading since the first round on 4 October. In the final pre-election poll released on 3 October, Lula led Flávio by 47% to 46% in total votes. CNN Brasil says 46% of voters for candidates eliminated in the first round are moving to Flávio and 32% to Lula.
Markets started pricing the poll before the close. InfoMoney reports that the Ibovespa rose 0.94% to 206,220 points on 8 October, while the dollar gained 0.27% to 5.024 reais. Interest rate futures, known as DI contracts, fell across the whole curve, and a PoderData poll released during the day gave Flávio 53% of valid votes. According to InfoMoney, the real has gained more than 10.9% against the dollar in 2026.
The link between the election and the currency runs through fiscal expectations. On 8 October two separate polls showed Flávio ahead in the 52–53% range, the same day the DI curve fell across the board. Markets are pricing a win for the right-wing candidate as a chance of fiscal discipline. Treasury data show the US 10-year yield closed at 5.22% that day; that level of external rates limits any lasting fall of the dollar below 5 reais.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The first Datafolha poll after the first round put Flávio ahead, but his 4-point lead in valid votes sits at the edge of the margin of error. Markets are already pricing the outcome in favour of fiscal discipline. If the polls turn, the real and rate futures will react quickly. The most likely path is a tight race to 25 October and a currency that swings with each poll.
Likely effects
- Brazilian realUncertainWeeks
A poll favouring Flávio supports the real, but US yields above 5% cap the gains; the dollar stays above 5 reais.
- Brazil's yield curvePositiveWeeks
The fall in DI contracts shows markets pricing tighter fiscal policy; that move could reverse quickly if the polls turn.
- Emerging market fundsUncertain1–6 months
Brazil's election rally affects how emerging market funds are allocated; high-yielding countries such as Türkiye compete for the same pool of money.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Tight race, volatile currency50%
Polls swing within the margin of error and the real moves in a 4.90–5.15 band with each release.
Watch: AtlasIntel and Quaest runoff polls in October
- 2Flávio pulls ahead30%
The gap widens beyond 5 points, and the real and rate futures price in the result early.
Watch: Flávio passing 53% of valid votes in Datafolha's next reading
- 3Lula comes back20%
Lula retakes the lead in the polls and the real gives back part of its post-first-round gains.
Watch: USD/BRL rising above 5.15
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Flávio, valid votes▲ 52%
- Ibovespa▲ +0.94%
- USD/BRL▼ 5.024