LowVI Energy Politics & Supply Security9 November 2026, Monday · 10:00 TRT (UTC+3)
COP31 opens in Antalya with climate finance the hardest file
The UN climate conference, COP31, opened in Antalya on 9 November and runs until 20 November. Environment Minister Murat Kurum holds the conference presidency, while the negotiations are led by Australia's Minister for Climate Change and Energy, Chris Bowen, under the co-presidency arrangement agreed at COP30.
According to UN News, around 200 countries are taking part and more than 90,000 participants are expected. Bianet reports that the opening plenary began at 10:00. The Antalya Leaders' Summit meets on 11–12 November and the Peoples' Climate Summit on 14 November. The UNFCCC programme shows President Erdoğan opening the leaders' summit on 11 November.
The UN identifies climate finance as the hardest file: developing countries want faster access to funds for adaptation and clean development. Pathways beyond fossil fuels, a just transition, health and agriculture are also on the agenda. Kurum said the impact of climate policy should be felt in households' energy bills. Bowen said the text would be the most ambitious decision that consensus allows.
Civil society groups from Türkiye and Australia held a separate event on the opening day calling for a fossil fuel phase-out. The sources do not say what new national commitment Türkiye has brought to the conference, nor what climate finance figure is on the table; neither point could be verified.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Hosting gives Ankara a 12-day diplomatic showcase, but the negotiating table belongs to Australia. The real knot is climate finance. Until developing countries' demand for faster funding is met, tougher language on moving away from fossil fuels looks hard to secure. As Bowen himself concedes, the final text is likely to sit at the outer edge of what consensus permits.
Likely effects
- Turkish diplomacyPositiveWeeks
The Antalya Leaders' Summit on 11–12 November, a two-day session opened by Erdoğan, offers Ankara room for a large number of bilateral meetings.
- Climate financeNegativeWeeks
If developing countries' demand for faster access to funds goes unmet, the talks will be squeezed into the final days and the text will weaken.
- Energy policyUncertain6 months+
The wording on pathways beyond fossil fuels could shape the terms on which energy importers, host Türkiye included, gain access to investment finance.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Text at the limit of consensus60%
The conference closes with modest progress on finance and generic transition language.
Watch: The finance and fossil fuel paragraphs in the closing text on 20 November
- 2Deadlock on finance25%
Disagreement over finance drags the conference into overtime or hollows out the text.
Watch: Negotiations running past 20 November
- 3Concrete funding pledge15%
New funding pledges with figures attached are announced at the leaders' summit.
Watch: Sums announced at the 11–12 November leaders' summit
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Participating countries▲ ~200
- Expected attendees▲ 90,000+