LowIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence10 November 2026, Tuesday

Erdoğan presses Bangladesh to deepen defence industry ties at COP31

President Erdoğan met Bangladeshi Prime Minister Tarique Rahman in Antalya on 10 November and called for cooperation to grow, particularly in trade and the defence industry. No agreement was signed and no order figure was announced.

Location: ANTALYA

According to the state news agency Anadolu, citing the Directorate of Communications, the meeting took place on 10 November on the sidelines of the COP31 climate conference hosted by Türkiye. Erdoğan said both countries stood to gain from expanding cooperation in trade and the defence industry. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and chief foreign policy and security adviser Akif Çağatay Kılıç were also at the table. Erdoğan added that Ankara would keep the plight of roughly 1 million Rohingya Muslims living in the Cox's Bazar camps on the international agenda.

Bangladesh's The Business Standard reported that the meeting was scheduled for 18:30 local time at the Maxx Royal Hotel; the actual start time could not be verified. Rahman is in Türkiye from 10 to 12 November and will address the COP31 plenary on 12 November. According to Prothom Alo, the two countries set up a joint ministerial committee on defence and foreign affairs after Fidan's visit to Dhaka in June 2026. The same source reports that Bangladesh's Army Chief paid a five-day visit to Türkiye in July 2026.

Behind the meeting lies Ankara's hunt for orders. Haluk Görgün, head of the Defence Industry Agency, said on 17 October that Turkish firms had signed about $15 billion of new contracts in 2026. He expects the year-end total to reach $20 billion, and closing the $5 billion gap requires new customers. Al-Monitor reported on 19 October that open orders placed with domestic suppliers exceeded $13.4 billion. Neither Türkiye–Bangladesh trade volume nor the value of defence sales to Dhaka appears in the readouts; these figures could not be verified.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

The Antalya meeting was not a contract but the warming-up of a prospective customer on the road to a $20 billion year-end target. The joint committee set up in June and the army chief's July visit show that the defence leg of the Dhaka relationship is becoming institutionalised. Any concrete order is most likely to come through committee meetings over the coming months; Antalya itself produced no figure.

Likely effects

Defence exportsPositive1–6 months
Bangladesh widens the pool of new South Asian customers for a year-end target running from $15 billion to $20 billion; without a contract, the burden of the target stays with existing buyers.
Regional balanceUncertain6 months+
The joint defence committee set up with Dhaka in June adds to Ankara's weight in South Asia and draws the attention of rival capitals in the region.
Humanitarian agendaUncertain1–6 months
The emphasis on roughly 1 million Rohingya Muslims gives Ankara soft power with the Bangladeshi public but no direct lever over the repatriation process.

Possibilities, ranked

1
Gradual progress via the committee55%
The joint defence and foreign affairs committee convenes and, within months, a limited procurement or co-production memorandum is announced.
Watch: Statement on the first meeting of the Türkiye–Bangladesh joint ministerial committee
2
A concrete contract lands before year-end25%
An order from Bangladesh is added to the Defence Industry Agency's year-end total before 2026 is out.
Watch: The agency's year-end contract total and any export announcement naming Bangladesh
3
Talks stay at the level of goodwill20%
Dhaka defers purchases because of budget or external debt constraints, and the relationship stays diplomatic.
Watch: Bangladesh's 2026–27 defence budget and its foreign procurement lines

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Bottom line

Likely effects

Possibilities, ranked

Sources