MediumIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence8 November 2026, Sunday
Türkiye begins handing its Bashiqa base back to Iraq
In a joint statement on 8 November, Türkiye and Iraq said the Turkish side would take steps towards a phased handover of the Bashiqa-Zilkan base to Iraq's federal government. The two countries are also activating a Joint Security Coordination Committee to monitor the PKK presence in Sinjar.
According to the statement published by Türkiye's Directorate of Communications, the decision rests on an understanding reached by the two countries' leaders on 23 September 2026. Türkiye has kept a military presence at Bashiqa, near Mosul, since 2015. Baghdad has long described the deployment as a violation of its sovereignty. The statement did not say which facilities the handover would cover, in what order or on what timetable; troop numbers were not disclosed either.
Anadolu Agency reports that on 8 November both sides reaffirmed their commitment to fully restoring state authority in Sinjar and ending the PKK presence there. The parties welcomed the steps Iraqi authorities have taken so far and called for them to continue. The new committee will jointly verify and monitor progress in Sinjar; its membership and working procedures were not announced.
The statement ties the base handover and the Sinjar committee together in a single text and to the same 23 September understanding. That structure suggests the handover will be read alongside progress in Sinjar. In exchange for a base it has held since 2015, Ankara is moving its security concerns into a joint verification mechanism. The statement makes no mention of the Development Road or of water.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Ankara has put Bashiqa, held since 2015, on the negotiating table, but has made the return conditional on joint committee verification of the PKK presence in Sinjar. With no timetable or scope announced, the handover will most likely proceed in conditional, reversible steps spread over months. For Baghdad, it is the first concrete gain on its sovereignty claim since 23 September.
Likely effects
- Türkiye–Iraq relationsPositive1–6 months
As the first implementing step of the 23 September understanding, it softens Baghdad's objection to the Turkish military presence and eases talks on energy and trade.
- Cross-border securityUncertain1–6 months
The joint committee shifts part of the burden of monitoring the PKK presence in Sinjar onto Iraq; if verification stalls, so does the handover.
- Northern IraqNegative6 months+
A smaller Turkish military footprint around Mosul raises a new question of balance over the room for manoeuvre of other armed groups in the area.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Conditional, gradual handover55%
Türkiye hands over the first facilities within months and keeps the rest tied to verification in Sinjar.
Watch: A statement on the first meeting of the Joint Security Coordination Committee
- 2Accelerated handover25%
A PKK withdrawal from Sinjar is verified quickly and a handover timetable is announced.
Watch: New takeover announcements by the Iraqi government in Sinjar
- 3Suspension20%
Clashes or a verification dispute erupt in Sinjar and Ankara freezes the handover.
Watch: References to Bashiqa and Sinjar in the Turkish defence ministry's weekly briefing
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.