MediumVI Energy Politics & Supply Security1 November 2026, Sunday
Dangote exported more fuel than it supplied at home in September
According to the NMDPRA's September bulletin, Dangote exported 54.63 million litres a day of petrol, diesel and jet fuel in September and supplied 39.98 million litres to the domestic market. The plant ran at 105.98% of capacity, processing about 689,000 barrels a day, but received 618,000 barrels of crude.
According to a Punch analysis published on 1 November, based on data from the NMDPRA, Nigeria's midstream and downstream regulator, Dangote's exports rose 37.33% in September from August. Domestic deliveries fell 22.08% over the same period. In August domestic deliveries exceeded exports by 11.53 million litres a day; in September exports exceeded domestic deliveries by 14.65 million litres. Diesel exports, at 15.91 million litres a day, were roughly double domestic supply.
According to the bulletin, the plant ran at 105.98% of its 650,000-barrel installed capacity, processing about 689,000 barrels a day. Crude reaching the refinery, however, was only about 618,000 barrels a day; the gap of 71,000 barrels a day was met from the plant's own stocks. Nigeria's petrol stocks fell to 23.9 days, below the regulator's 30-day benchmark. Diesel deliveries, at 8.7 million litres a day, hit a 13-month low.
Behind the crude shortfall lies the naira-for-crude sales programme launched in October 2024. According to Ecofin, the plant needs 13–15 cargoes a month, while the allocation NNPC sells for naira rose to 7 cargoes in May. Since 13 July Dangote has priced domestic sales in dollars, listing petrol at 0.779 dollars a litre and diesel at 1.087 dollars. In Talay's reading, in a market where Gulf product carries a 6–10% war-risk premium, dollar-earning exports remain more attractive than domestic deliveries.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Africa's largest refinery is running above capacity, but it is steering more and more of its output to foreign markets and covering its crude shortfall from stocks. Unless the naira allocation widens, this balance keeps product flowing to the region while thinning Nigeria's domestic fuel buffer. If stocks run out, one of the two directions will be the first to be cut.
Likely effects
- Nigerian fuel supplyNegativeWeeks
With petrol stocks below the 30-day benchmark and diesel deliveries at a 13-month low, the domestic market is more exposed to imports and price rises.
- Regional product importsPositiveWeeks
West and East African importers can source from Lekki instead of Gulf product carrying a war-risk premium; that buffer depends on a single plant.
- Naira and FXNegative1–6 months
A refinery that buys crude in dollars and sells in dollars passes currency pressure on to consumers through dollar-priced fuel at home.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Export bias persists55%
Exports stay above domestic deliveries in the October bulletin, and the crude gap is closed from stocks and foreign purchases.
Watch: Export and domestic delivery figures in the NMDPRA October bulletin
- 2Stocks run out, output falls30%
Crude intake drops, utilisation falls below 100% and both exports and domestic deliveries decline.
Watch: Crude received and utilisation rate in the NMDPRA bulletin
- 3The naira allocation widens15%
NNPC and Dangote agree an allocation close to 13 cargoes a month, and domestic deliveries rise again.
Watch: An NNPC announcement on naira-for-crude cargo allocations
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Exports (September)▲ 54.63m l/d
- Domestic deliveries (September)▼ 39.98m l/d
- Petrol stocks▼ 23.9 days