MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints24 September 2026, Thursday · 07:23 TRT (UTC+3)
10 commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on 23 September, 9 of them inbound to the Gulf; preliminary data for 22 September revised from 3 to 7 ships
According to preliminary data cited by Reuters, 10 commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on 23 September, below the 10-day average of around 17. Nine of the ships entered the Gulf and only 1 left. On the same day, 27 ships passed through Bab el-Mandeb.
According to reports by Marinelink and The Times of Israel dated 24 September, preliminary ship-tracking data cited by Reuters showed 10 commodity vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz on 23 September; the figure for the previous day was 7, and the 10-day moving average around 17. The data were compiled as of 04:23 GMT on 24 September: 9 ships entered the Gulf (Supramaxes carrying metals, grain and dry bulk, plus 1 empty very large gas carrier), while only 1 Supramax, loaded with fertiliser, left. Before the war, prior to 28 February, around 125 large commercial vessels crossed the strait each day. According to the same data, 27 ships passed through Bab el-Mandeb on 23 September, against 24 the day before and a 10-day average of 26.
Preliminary data are being revised substantially after the fact: according to a Baird Maritime report dated 23 September citing Kpler, only 3 ships (all outbound) had crossed on 22 September, with a 10-day average of around 15; a day later, 7 ships were reported for the same date. The 10-day average also differs between the two reports, at 15 and 17. All figures exclude vessels that switch off their transponders. According to Straits.live's summary of 24 September, 392 ships are waiting outside the strait; GlobalSecurity puts the figure at 396 for 23 September. IMF PortWatch shows only 1 transit on 20 September, the latest date it covers; this is a series measured with a different methodology.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The recovery signal in the Strait of Hormuz is weak: 9 of the 10 transits on 23 September were inbound to the Gulf, and almost none were crude oil exports. Because daily counts have been revised by up to a factor of two after the preliminary data, tracking the 10-day average is more reliable than any single day's drop or jump. A return to the pre-war level of 125 ships appears to require a US–Iran settlement.
Likely effects
- Gulf exportsNegativeWeeks
Outbound transits being limited to 1 ship shows that Gulf producers' crude and LNG exports still depend on pipelines and stored inventories.
- Data reliabilityUncertainWeeks
The revision of the 22 September figure from 3 to 7 shows that headlines based on preliminary data can mislead; threshold assessments should use the revised series.
- Türkiye's foreign tradeNegative1–6 months
Hormuz holding at 17 ships on a 10-day average means Türkiye will continue to face high freight costs and extended delivery times for Gulf-sourced energy and petrochemical inputs.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Fluctuation at a low level60%
Daily transits stay within a 5–20 band, and outbound tanker transits remain the exception.
Watch: The 10-day average in Kpler's daily Hormuz data
- 2Gradual increase through a deal25%
The US and Iran agree on a phased reopening formula, and transits rise above 40 ships a day within weeks.
Watch: A decision to lift the blockade and daily transits exceeding 40
- 3Near zero after new attacks15%
Following new attacks on shipping, transits fall to 1–3 ships a day.
Watch: A new ship attack notice from the IMO or UKMTO
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Hormuz (23 Sep)▲ 10 ships
- Hormuz 10-day avg.▼ ~17 ships
- Bab el-Mandeb (23 Sep)▲ 27 ships
Historical context
Strait of Hormuz transits, last 6 months
- 109/09 · US and Iran strike tankers in the largest wave of attacks on shipping since the war began
- 213/09 · Panama-flagged tanker El Gaia struck off Oman, two crew members missing
- 314/09 · Ship-tracking data at Hormuz contradict the US Energy Secretary's claim of 10 million barrels a day in flows
- 417/09 · European gas storage enters winter 68.5% full as TTF traded in a 77-79 euro band on 17 September
- 522/09 · Brent falls from 104.82 dollars on 17 September to 100.05 dollars on 22 September as Hormuz transit data conflict
- 622/09 · Iran puts an offer to reopen Hormuz within 7 days on the table; the same day a parliamentary committee approves fines of 20% of cargo for violators
- 722/09 · Trump meets 12 regional countries including Türkiye at the UN, US and Iranian delegations talk for 3 hours; Tehran sets 3 conditions on Hormuz
- 823/09 · Bulk carrier Cape Dao hit by two projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz, 1 Indian seafarer killed; IMO counts 83 attacks and 23 deaths since the conflict began
- 923/09 · Iran raises its conditions for reopening Hormuz to 7; according to Kpler, only 3 commodity vessels transited the strait on 22 September
- 1024/09 · 10 commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on 23 September, 9 of them inbound to the Gulf; preliminary data for 22 September revised from 3 to 7 ships
- 1124/09 · Tracked Hormuz transits fell to 9 on 24 September, 8 of them outbound; 23 September revised from 10 to 14, while The National gave 13 for the same day
Sources
- Marinelink — Hormuz shipping traffic remains well below recent average
- Times of Israel — 10 ships crossed Hormuz yesterday, remaining below 10-day average, data shows
- Baird Maritime — Strait of Hormuz transits remain sluggish, hovering below 10-day average
- Straits.live — Strait of Hormuz status, 24 September 2026