MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints24 September 2026, Thursday
Tracked Hormuz transits fell to 9 on 24 September, 8 of them outbound; 23 September revised from 10 to 14, while The National gave 13 for the same day
According to preliminary ship-tracking data cited by Reuters, 9 commodity vessels transited Hormuz on 24 September; the 10-day average is 18. Eight of the vessels were outbound and only 1 inbound. The National reported 13 transits for the same day. Bab el-Mandeb recorded 26 transits.
According to 25 September reports by Business Recorder and Baird Maritime, preliminary data cited by Reuters showed 9 transits of Hormuz on 24 September, against 14 the previous day and a 10-day average of 18. Of the 8 outbound vessels, 1 was an empty very large gas carrier and 1 a laden very large crude carrier (VLCC); the rest were Panamax and Supramax vessels and short- and medium-range tankers. The only inbound vessel was a Handymax bulk carrier. For 23 September, 10 transits had been reported a day earlier; the new data put the same day at 14. Before the war, prior to 28 February, around 125 large commercial vessels passed through the strait each day.
The figures diverge by source: The National's 25 September market report refers to 13 transits for 24 September, while the Reuters-sourced data say 9; both figures exclude vessels that switched off their transponders. According to the same Reuters data, 26 vessels passed through Bab el-Mandeb on 24 September: 12 inbound and 14 outbound. The outbound vessels included 1 laden VLCC with its transponder on carrying Iraq's Basrah crude to Egypt. A day earlier Bab el-Mandeb transits had been 27.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Eight of the 9 transits on 24 September were outbound; this shows the strait functioning not as a trade gateway but as an evacuation corridor for vessels left inside. The revision of the preliminary data from 10 to 14 the following day and The National's figure of 13 show that reading trends from single-day data is risky and that the 10-day average (18) is the more reliable indicator.
Likely effects
- Gulf exportsNegativeWeeks
Daily transits of 9–18 are 7–14% of the roughly 125 before the war; Gulf crude and LNG exports remain dependent on alternative routes such as the East-West pipeline.
- Red Sea routeNegativeWeeks
Traffic continues at Bab el-Mandeb with 26–27 daily transits, and Iraqi crude goes to Egypt this way; the Houthis targeting Yanbu puts this alternative at risk too.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Low transits persist65%
Daily transits stay in the 10–20 band, the outbound bias continues, and the 10-day average stays below 20.
Watch: Reuters daily preliminary transit data and revisions
- 2Diplomatic opening20%
A first step is taken in US–Iran talks and transits rise above 30.
Watch: Easing of the blockade and a rise in inbound transits
- 3New wave of attacks15%
A new attack on shipping in the strait pins transits at single digits.
Watch: UKMTO incident reports
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Hormuz (24 Sep)▼ 9 vessels
- Bab el-Mandeb (24 Sep)▼ 26 vessels
- Hormuz 10-day avg.▲ 18 vessels
Historical context
Strait of Hormuz transits, last 6 months
- 109/09 · US and Iran strike tankers in the largest wave of attacks on shipping since the war began
- 213/09 · Panama-flagged tanker El Gaia struck off Oman, two crew members missing
- 314/09 · Ship-tracking data at Hormuz contradict the US Energy Secretary's claim of 10 million barrels a day in flows
- 417/09 · European gas storage enters winter 68.5% full as TTF traded in a 77-79 euro band on 17 September
- 522/09 · Brent falls from 104.82 dollars on 17 September to 100.05 dollars on 22 September as Hormuz transit data conflict
- 622/09 · Iran puts an offer to reopen Hormuz within 7 days on the table; the same day a parliamentary committee approves fines of 20% of cargo for violators
- 722/09 · Trump meets 12 regional countries including Türkiye at the UN, US and Iranian delegations talk for 3 hours; Tehran sets 3 conditions on Hormuz
- 823/09 · Bulk carrier Cape Dao hit by two projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz, 1 Indian seafarer killed; IMO counts 83 attacks and 23 deaths since the conflict began
- 923/09 · Iran raises its conditions for reopening Hormuz to 7; according to Kpler, only 3 commodity vessels transited the strait on 22 September
- 1024/09 · 10 commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on 23 September, 9 of them inbound to the Gulf; preliminary data for 22 September revised from 3 to 7 ships
- 1124/09 · Tracked Hormuz transits fell to 9 on 24 September, 8 of them outbound; 23 September revised from 10 to 14, while The National gave 13 for the same day