HighIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence23 September 2026, Wednesday · 09:30 TRT (UTC+3)
Bulk carrier Cape Dao hit by two projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz, 1 Indian seafarer killed; IMO counts 83 attacks and 23 deaths since the conflict began
The Antigua and Barbuda-flagged Cape Dao was hit by unidentified projectiles at around 06:30 UTC on 23 September, 2.5 nautical miles off Oman's Musandam coast. Of its 28 crew, 1 Indian seafarer was killed and the ship drifted on fire; no one claimed responsibility for the attack.
According to gCaptain's report of 23 September, the bulk carrier Cape Dao (IMO 9219020) was hit twice on its port side at around 06:30 UTC, the time given by UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), about 2.5 nautical miles off the Musandam coast. One projectile struck the accommodation block and the other near the engine room, starting a fire; the crew abandoned ship. According to the same report, 20 of the 28 crew are Indian nationals; a 26-year-old oiler was killed and 27 people were evacuated. Some reports attributed to the embassy, which Talay could not access, put the number of Indian crew at 19; this discrepancy could not be verified.
The perpetrator of the attack has not been identified: neither Iran nor the US claimed it, and UKMTO referred only to an unknown projectile. According to gCaptain, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) has recorded 83 verified incidents and 23 seafarer deaths since the conflict began on 28 February; 2 more ships were attacked on 21 September. The incident coincided with a day on which US and Iranian delegations were continuing contacts on the margins of the UN General Assembly.
The attack came at a time when traffic had already hit rock bottom. According to Baird Maritime, citing a Reuters report based on Kpler data, only 3 commodity vessels transited the strait on 22 September, against a 10-day average of about 15. The Straits.live monitoring site counts 372 AIS-visible ships waiting outside ports.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Cape Dao took the IMO tally to 83 incidents and 23 deaths; while the perpetrator remains unknown, insurers and shipowners attribute the risk not to a single actor but to the strait as a whole. A fatal attack while UN contacts continue shows that diplomatic momentum has not yet translated into security on the water. The most likely path is for transits to remain in single digits per day.
Likely effects
- War-risk insuranceNegativeWeeks
Fatal attacks with unknown perpetrators keep war-risk premiums high for ships leaving the Gulf and also deter non-energy shipments such as dry bulk.
- Seafarer supplyNegative1–6 months
Union reaction in countries such as India, which supply most crews, may make it harder to find seafarers for the region and further reduce transits.
- Türkiye's energy billNegativeWeeks
Continued security risk in the strait keeps the risk premium in oil and LNG prices alive, which feeds into Türkiye's energy import bill.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Low-intensity attacks continue60%
Intermittent attacks by unknown perpetrators continue; transits remain in single digits per day.
Watch: The IMO incident tally and Kpler daily transit data
- 2Negotiations calm attacks25%
Contacts on the UN margins turn into a temporary security arrangement, and attacks become less frequent.
Watch: A joint or simultaneous Hormuz statement from the US and Iran
- 3Escalation and naval escorts15%
New fatal attacks push the US and its allies towards convoy and escort operations.
Watch: New incidents in UKMTO warnings and a US Navy escort announcement
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Seafarer deaths (IMO)▼ 23
- IMO incident count▼ 83
- Hormuz transits (22 Sep)▼ 3 ships
Historical context
Strait of Hormuz transits, last 6 months
- 109/09 · US and Iran strike tankers in the largest wave of attacks on shipping since the war began
- 213/09 · Panama-flagged tanker El Gaia struck off Oman, two crew members missing
- 314/09 · Ship-tracking data at Hormuz contradict the US Energy Secretary's claim of 10 million barrels a day in flows
- 417/09 · European gas storage enters winter 68.5% full as TTF traded in a 77-79 euro band on 17 September
- 522/09 · Brent falls from 104.82 dollars on 17 September to 100.05 dollars on 22 September as Hormuz transit data conflict
- 622/09 · Iran puts an offer to reopen Hormuz within 7 days on the table; the same day a parliamentary committee approves fines of 20% of cargo for violators
- 722/09 · Trump meets 12 regional countries including Türkiye at the UN, US and Iranian delegations talk for 3 hours; Tehran sets 3 conditions on Hormuz
- 823/09 · Bulk carrier Cape Dao hit by two projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz, 1 Indian seafarer killed; IMO counts 83 attacks and 23 deaths since the conflict began
- 923/09 · Iran raises its conditions for reopening Hormuz to 7; according to Kpler, only 3 commodity vessels transited the strait on 22 September
- 1024/09 · 10 commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on 23 September, 9 of them inbound to the Gulf; preliminary data for 22 September revised from 3 to 7 ships
- 1124/09 · Tracked Hormuz transits fell to 9 on 24 September, 8 of them outbound; 23 September revised from 10 to 14, while The National gave 13 for the same day