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TALAYINSIGHT
The Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman and Persian Gulf coastlines seen at an oblique angle from the International Space Station
RegionMiddle East and North Africa

HighI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints5 October 2026, Monday

Estimates of oil flowing through Hormuz diverge by up to fivefold

Kpler data published on 5 October show Middle East crude exports exceeding pre-war levels on four days in the last week of September. The Revolutionary Guards, however, say only 3–4 million barrels a day pass through the strait, and visible transits fell to four vessels on 4 October.

The Strait of Hormuz, linking the Gulf of Oman with the Persian Gulf, seen from the International Space Station. NASA, 18 August 2022 (archive image)Photo: NASA / Wikimedia Commons · Public domain · Source
Location: STRAIT OF HORMUZ

According to Kpler data cited by Al Jazeera, the region's crude exports reached 19.5 to 22.5 million barrels a day on 24 September and between 27 and 29 September. The pre-war average, between March 2025 and February 2026, was 18 million barrels a day. Including crude, products and other liquids, the total for the seven days to 30 September was 22.4 million barrels a day; the 1 October average slipped to 18.5 million. OilPrice reported on 6 October that only 60% of Gulf crude exports excluding Iran now pass through Hormuz, against 83% before the war.

Other counts on 5 October tell a different story. Al Jazeera reports that Revolutionary Guards commander Ali Fedevi said on 5 October that only 3–4 million barrels a day were transiting the strait. Global Energy Flow's compilation shows Tankertrackers.com estimating the flow at 3.7 million barrels a day and Bloomberg at 6–8 million. The gap between the lowest and highest estimates is more than fivefold. IMF PortWatch data cited by Straits.live show only four transits on 4 October, against a pre-crisis daily average of 85.

The gap stems from dark transits: voyages made with AIS transponders switched off, which do not appear in the four-transit PortWatch count for 4 October. According to Global Energy Flow, Windward counted 119 commercial transits in the week to 30 September, 37% of them with AIS off. On 30 September alone, six of 16 transits were dark. The risk is not receding. CBS News reports 12 crew injured on the tanker On Peace, struck off Oman. According to Al Jazeera, UKMTO has recorded at least one attack every day in Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since 2 October.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

Physical flows are far higher than visible transit counts imply; much of the oil leaves with AIS switched off or via bypass routes. That explains why prices react less to headlines from the strait, but it ties supply to dark voyages that are hard to insure. The most likely path is high flows and frequent attacks continuing side by side, with the gap between estimates staying open.

Likely effects

  • Oil pricesUncertainWeeks

    Kpler data showing flows above pre-war levels erode the risk premium in Brent; a single major attack could, however, restore that premium quickly.

  • War-risk insuranceNegative1–6 months

    As the share of dark transits rises, insurers struggle to price the risk; cover stays thin and premiums remain high.

  • Türkiye's energy billPositiveWeeks

    Continued flows reduce the risk of a sudden jump in Türkiye's imported crude and product costs, though freight and insurance charges remain in the bill.

Possibilities, ranked

  1. 1
    High flows, frequent attacks55%

    With dark transits, exports run close to pre-war levels while UKMTO keeps reporting daily incidents.

    Watch: Kpler's weekly Middle East export data and UKMTO incident counts

  2. 2
    Attacks cut flows again30%

    One or more major tanker strikes drive shipowners away and exports fall back below 18 million barrels a day.

    Watch: Kpler's seven-day average dropping below 18 million barrels

  3. 3
    Diplomatic opening15%

    Mediators broker a transit arrangement between the US and Iran, and visible transits rise rapidly.

    Watch: PortWatch daily transits climbing above 40

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

Historical context

Strait of Hormuz transits, last 6 months

-51026415628/0523/0619/0713/0808/0904/109 September 2026 — US and Iran strike tankers in the largest wave of attacks on shipping since the war began113 September 2026 — Panama-flagged tanker El Gaia struck off Oman, two crew members missing214 September 2026 — Ship-tracking data at Hormuz contradict the US Energy Secretary's claim of 10 million barrels a day in flows317 September 2026 — European gas storage enters winter 68.5% full as TTF traded in a 77-79 euro band on 17 September422 September 2026 — Brent falls from 104.82 dollars on 17 September to 100.05 dollars on 22 September as Hormuz transit data conflict522 September 2026 — Iran puts an offer to reopen Hormuz within 7 days on the table; the same day a parliamentary committee approves fines of 20% of cargo for violators622 September 2026 — Trump meets 12 regional countries including Türkiye at the UN, US and Iranian delegations talk for 3 hours; Tehran sets 3 conditions on Hormuz723 September 2026 — Bulk carrier Cape Dao hit by two projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz, 1 Indian seafarer killed; IMO counts 83 attacks and 23 deaths since the conflict began823 September 2026 — Iran raises its conditions for reopening Hormuz to 7; according to Kpler, only 3 commodity vessels transited the strait on 22 September924 September 2026 — 10 commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on 23 September, 9 of them inbound to the Gulf; preliminary data for 22 September revised from 3 to 7 ships1024 September 2026 — Tracked Hormuz transits fell to 9 on 24 September, 8 of them outbound; 23 September revised from 10 to 14, while The National gave 13 for the same day1126 September 2026 — Trump says 29 ships left Hormuz overnight; independent tracking data show single-digit transits, barrel estimates range from 3.7 to 16.4 million1228 September 2026 — More than half of Hormuz transits now happen with transponders off1329 September 2026 — Tankers are hit in Hormuz, yet transits still rise to 17144 October 2026 — Hormuz tanker attacks turn almost daily, yet transits still rise15
  1. 109/09 · US and Iran strike tankers in the largest wave of attacks on shipping since the war began
  2. 213/09 · Panama-flagged tanker El Gaia struck off Oman, two crew members missing
  3. 314/09 · Ship-tracking data at Hormuz contradict the US Energy Secretary's claim of 10 million barrels a day in flows
  4. 417/09 · European gas storage enters winter 68.5% full as TTF traded in a 77-79 euro band on 17 September
  5. 522/09 · Brent falls from 104.82 dollars on 17 September to 100.05 dollars on 22 September as Hormuz transit data conflict
  6. 622/09 · Iran puts an offer to reopen Hormuz within 7 days on the table; the same day a parliamentary committee approves fines of 20% of cargo for violators
  7. 722/09 · Trump meets 12 regional countries including Türkiye at the UN, US and Iranian delegations talk for 3 hours; Tehran sets 3 conditions on Hormuz
  8. 823/09 · Bulk carrier Cape Dao hit by two projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz, 1 Indian seafarer killed; IMO counts 83 attacks and 23 deaths since the conflict began
  9. 923/09 · Iran raises its conditions for reopening Hormuz to 7; according to Kpler, only 3 commodity vessels transited the strait on 22 September
  10. 1024/09 · 10 commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on 23 September, 9 of them inbound to the Gulf; preliminary data for 22 September revised from 3 to 7 ships
  11. 1124/09 · Tracked Hormuz transits fell to 9 on 24 September, 8 of them outbound; 23 September revised from 10 to 14, while The National gave 13 for the same day
  12. 1226/09 · Trump says 29 ships left Hormuz overnight; independent tracking data show single-digit transits, barrel estimates range from 3.7 to 16.4 million
  13. 1328/09 · More than half of Hormuz transits now happen with transponders off
  14. 1429/09 · Tankers are hit in Hormuz, yet transits still rise to 17
  15. 1504/10 · Hormuz tanker attacks turn almost daily, yet transits still rise

Sources

  1. Al Jazeera — Middle East oil exports surpass pre-war levels despite tensions, data shows
  2. OilPrice — Oil Prices Fall as Reports Say Hormuz Crude Flows Top Pre-War Levels
  3. OilPrice — Saudi East-West Pipeline Moves 5.8 Million Barrels as Red Sea Route Recovers
  4. Global Energy Flow — Is the Strait of Hormuz Open? Day 220
  5. Straits.live — Strait of Hormuz Status: October 6, 2026
  6. CBS News — Live Updates: Iran war, oil prices, Red Sea