HighIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence2 October 2026, Friday

After Medina, the Houthis keep firing missiles at southern Saudi Arabia

The Saudi-led coalition said on 2 October that it had downed 3 ballistic missiles aimed at Khamis Mushait. On the same day a school in Najran was damaged by a Houthi projectile. On 1 October the coalition had announced that a Houthi drone struck the substation supplying the Prophet's Mosque in Medina.

Location: KHAMIS MUSHAIT

According to France 24, the coalition said a drone struck the Taybah power distribution station in Medina at 05:11 local time on the morning of 29 September. The attack knocked out 1 transformer, while the rest of the grid was unaffected. The National dates the incident to 1 October; the 2 sources conflict on the date. The Houthis denied responsibility. According to The National, this was the second attack on the holy cities in 2 weeks, after a drone approaching Mecca was downed on 17 September.

According to AA, the coalition downed 2 ballistic missiles and 4 drones over southern Saudi Arabia on 1 October. In Khamis Mushait, debris damaged several buildings and vehicles. A further 3 ballistic missiles were downed on 2 October, and the Saudi Press Agency said a school in Najran suffered material damage. Al Jazeera reported that debris from a missile downed in the Asir region on the same day injured 1 person.

The reactions are widening the regional front. The GCC Secretary-General said the Medina attack had crossed all red lines. Saudi Arabia announced budget support of 224 million riyals, about 60 million dollars, for the Yemeni government. Türkiye's Director of Communications Burhanettin Duran condemned the attack on 2 October. He said Türkiye would continue to stand by Saudi Arabia.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

The Houthis have targeted two holy cities in 2 weeks and fire missiles at the southern front every day. Their choice of targets moves the attacks from military pressure to a religious and political challenge. Their denial of the Medina claim signals an effort to control escalation. The most likely path is continued daily attacks causing little damage, with growing pressure on Riyadh's partners, Türkiye included, for concrete support.

Likely effects

Saudi securityNegativeWeeks
Daily attacks on Khamis Mushait, Najran and Asir deplete air-defence stocks and sustain the risk of debris in civilian areas.
Türkiye's commitmentUncertain1–6 months
Ankara's statement on 2 October that it will stand by Saudi Arabia could prompt a Saudi request for air defence or other military support.
Regional diplomacyNegative1–6 months
Attacks on the holy cities are uniting the GCC and the Arab League against the Houthis, narrowing Iran's room for mediation.

Possibilities, ranked

1
Daily low-damage attacks55%
The Houthis keep firing missiles and drones at southern cities; most are downed and casualties stay limited.
Watch: The coalition's daily interception statements and Saudi Civil Defence damage reports
2
Saudi counter-strikes escalate30%
The coalition intensifies air strikes on Sanaa and Saada, and the Houthis step up attacks on Red Sea shipping.
Watch: Reports of air strikes in Sanaa and new UKMTO warnings in the Red Sea
3
Mediated calm15%
A temporary lull is secured through the Omani or Qatari channel, and attacks stop for 1 week.
Watch: An official mediation statement from Oman and no interception reports for 7 days

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

Missiles downed on 2 October▼ 3
Transformers knocked out in Medina▼ 1
Saudi budget support▼ 60 million dollars

Bottom line

Likely effects

Possibilities, ranked

Sources