MediumVI Energy Politics & Supply Security4 November 2026, Wednesday
Iraq's Ceyhan exports fall short of the 750,000-barrel commitment
According to Windward, loadings at the Kirkuk–Ceyhan terminal averaged about 341,000 barrels a day between 23 September and 28 October. An unofficial source quoted by Kurdistan 24 said flows had risen to 500,000 barrels. Both figures fall short of the 750,000-barrel minimum in the 1 August agreement.
Windward's AIS data show 36 crude loadings at the Kirkuk–Ceyhan terminal between 1 July and 30 October, or about 2 a week. The 14 loadings between 23 September and 28 October equate to roughly 341,000 barrels a day based on tanker capacity. Commodity tracking data for the same period show 25 smaller cargoes and about 386,000 barrels a day. Of the 36 cargoes, 33 went to Mediterranean and Black Sea ports, mostly to refineries in Greece and Italy; none went to Asia.
Kurdistan 24, citing a source at the North Oil Company, reported that Iraq's exports via Ceyhan had reached 500,000 barrels a day as of 2 November. According to the source, 125,000 barrels of this comes from Kirkuk, 175,000–200,000 from the Kurdistan Region and about 200,000 from Basra crude moved by truck. The figure has not been officially confirmed; the previous level is given as 300,000–350,000 barrels.
Iraq and Türkiye signed a 1-year agreement on 1 August envisaging flows of at least 750,000 barrels. According to Kurdistan 24, the oil minister said on 19 October that exports across all routes exceeded 3.4 million barrels a day; 500,000 barrels would be about 15% of that. Because none of the 36 cargoes went to Asia, Windward says Asian buyers will remain dependent on Iraqi oil shipped through Hormuz.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The Ceyhan route is insurance against Hormuz for Iraq, but at its current scale it is not a buffer. Satellite and AIS data show 341,000–386,000 barrels a day, while the unofficial 500,000-barrel claim remains unconfirmed. Trucking Basra crude north could lift volumes, but approaching the 750,000-barrel commitment requires a pipeline connection.
Likely effects
- Türkiye transit revenueNegative1–6 months
While flows stay below the 750,000-barrel minimum, Türkiye's transit and port revenue from Ceyhan will not reach the level the agreement envisages.
- Mediterranean refinersPositiveWeeks
With almost all cargoes going to the Mediterranean and Black Sea, Greek and Italian refiners gain an additional source against Gulf disruption.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Flows hold at 350,000–500,00060%
Trucked Basra crude supports volumes, but without a pipeline link 750,000 barrels remains out of reach.
Watch: Windward's weekly Ceyhan loading count (3–5 range)
- 2Volumes top 500,00025%
A Baghdad–Erbil settlement and stronger Basra logistics push loadings above 5 a week.
Watch: SOMO's monthly export statement
- 3Flows are disrupted15%
A Baghdad–Erbil dispute or a security incident halts the pipeline again.
Watch: Statements from the North Oil Company and the Kurdistan Region
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Ceyhan loadings (AIS)▼ 341k b/d
- Unofficial flow claim▲ 500k b/d
- Agreed minimum volume▼ 750k b/d