MediumIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence15 September 2026, Tuesday
At least 10 detentions and one death reported in DR Congo protests against a constitutional change that could open the way to a third term for Tshisekedi
Demonstrations were held in Kinshasa, Lubumbashi and Uvira on 15 September at the call of the opposition platform C64. Police used pepper spray. The opposition says one of its members died in Kinshasa.
According to Al Jazeera, demonstrations were held on 15 September in Kinshasa, the mining hub of Lubumbashi and Uvira at the call of the opposition coalition C64. Police used pepper spray and at least 10 people were detained. The constitution limits the president to two five-year terms. In June parliament passed a law allowing the constitution to be amended by referendum, and some figures in Tshisekedi's coalition support changes that would open the door to a third term. Africanews reported that clashes broke out in Kinshasa as soon as the march began and that, according to the opposition, one member died at the Olympic Hospital.
The domestic political tension coincides with the M23 conflict in the east and the talks with Rwanda in Geneva. The country is also grappling with the 17th Ebola outbreak in its history. According to WHO data cited by Al Jazeera, the number of cases has exceeded 7,200 and the death toll 3,500. The referendum process could accelerate the opposition's search for international support. It could also raise the political risk premium for Western partners and cobalt-copper investors. C64 is expected to meet to decide its next steps and possible international appeals.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The protests show that the Tshisekedi coalition's attempt to stretch the term limit through a referendum will meet stiff domestic opposition. Given the heavy-handed security response and the opposition's limited mobilising power, the process advancing amid tension is the most likely path. However, its coincidence with the war in the east and the Ebola outbreak raises the risk of nationwide instability above normal levels.
Likely effects
- Political stability in the DRCNegative1–6 months
The term-limit dispute is unfolding alongside the M23 conflict in the east and the Ebola outbreak; with state capacity stretched, repression and polarisation rise and trust in institutions erodes.
- Mining investment riskNegative6 months+
Protests reaching mining hubs such as Lubumbashi, together with the constitutional change process, raise the political risk premium for Western partners and cobalt-copper investors and may slow investment decisions.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Referendum process advances under pressure55%
The ruling coalition keeps to its timetable; protests are contained through arrests and dispersals, and the opposition remains fragmented.
Watch: An official referendum date or draft amendment being announced, and protests staying confined to a few cities.
- 2Amendment postponed25%
Domestic and external pressure, together with security priorities, lead the government to suspend or indefinitely postpone the plan.
Watch: Tshisekedi or the ruling coalition announcing a delay, or explicit warnings from Western partners.
- 3Spreading mass unrest20%
Deaths and arrests swell the opposition, protests spread to new cities and the process turns into a serious domestic crisis.
Watch: A rising death toll, a C64 call for open-ended protests and demonstrations spreading to other provinces.
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.