Container lines return to Suez despite a slim 43-dollar slot saving

Drewry's report of 8 October, cited by Breakbulk News, says routing a 24,000 TEU ship through Suez instead of round the Cape saves about 1 million dollars per round voyage. That works out at about 43 dollars per container slot. Operating costs fall from 18 million to 17 million dollars, about 6%, and distance drops from 29,711 nautical miles to 21,878. Drewry says lines are returning mainly because of the 27-day time saving, vessel utilisation and competitive pressure. MSC, CMA CGM, Maersk, Ocean Alliance and Gemini Cooperation are among those returning.

Insurance could wipe out the saving. Drewry calculates that for a container ship worth 225 million dollars, a war risk premium of 0.3% adds 1.35 million dollars over two transits, and a 1% premium adds 4.5 million. That can exceed the 1 million dollar gain. The canal's 15% and 25% rebates save about 365,000 and 600,000 dollars respectively. Drewry's base case has Suez container transits reaching 80% of pre-diversion levels in February 2027. It ties the return to a cautious operational adjustment, not to the Red Sea being deemed fully safe.

Sources diverge on which direction is returning. Breakbulk says some services use Suez only on eastbound backhaul legs. Translindo's commentary on 9 October says westbound Asia–North Europe services returned in early October, while eastbound sailings still go round the Cape. Translindo says Suez transits rose 28% year on year in August, the busiest month since December 2023, while Bab el-Mandeb transits fell 49% on the previous month. The Africa Center for Strategic Studies has recorded 12 attacks or attempts in the southern Red Sea since July.